Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTCLast checked 5 Sept 2026, 13:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-05T13:55:26.918Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

6.5%bid 6.0% / ask 7.0%24h volume $461K · liquidity $413Kas of 5 Sept, 13:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

12.0%against a market price of 6.5% at the timeNO

Logged 1 Sept 2026, 02:42 UTC · Brier 0.0144

Outside view: three-way soccer outcomes make any single-team win far from even money; draws alone remove about a quarter of outcomes, and Coventry’s recent Championship level would make them favorite only in some home fixtures.
Inside view: the prompt lacks opponent, venue, injuries, and form, so case-specific signal is weak; the very low 6.5% market quote is treated cautiously because $314 volume is thin, but it still suggests the actual fixture may be a difficult away/elite matchup rather than a generic league game.
Post-estimate price check: my independent range was higher than 6.5%, but the divergence is plausibly explained by an opponent/venue embedded in the event plus low liquidity, so I only partially update toward the market rather than fully accepting it.

What would change it: Confirmed lineup/fixture news showing Coventry at home against a comparable or weaker opponent, or major opponent absences, would move this sharply upward.

Settlement source

+5.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: For an English league soccer match settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage, a named club’s unconditional win probability is typically around 30–40%, but drops to roughly 5–15% when they are a clear away underdog against a much stronger side.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 6 Sept 2026, 15:39 UTC · recorded 6 Sept 2026, 15:39 UTC · entered by handsettlement

Polymarket prices this at 6.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $460,535 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

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This call is line t-0154 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.