Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T13:55:27.195Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

26.5%bid 26.0% / ask 27.0%24h volume $143K · liquidity $369Kas of 25 Oct, 13:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

25.8%against a market price of 30.5% at the timeNO
Logged 22 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Brier 0.0663
- The matchup-level base rate (4 wins in 18 PL meetings, ~22%) is the anchor, and it flatters Brighton for this fixture because this game is at Anfield, where their record is worse than the all-venue figure.
- Current form is genuine positive signal: Brighton at 5-1-1 with a 5-0 win over Crystal Palace is playing like a top-four side, materially better than a typical Anfield visitor.
- Liverpool's mediocre 3-3-1 start weakens the usual Anfield premium somewhat; they have not been dominant at home this season by results.
- Brighton's injury list is strong negative signal: Mitoma, Minteh, Tzimas, Ferguson and Azeez unavailable strips most of their attacking width and striker depth, with Wieffer doubtful and Struijk a late check — this roughly cancels the form upgrade.
- Away wins in the Premier League occur only ~27-30% of the time in general, and draws (~25%) are a live alternative, so even an in-form, depleted Brighton side wins this fixture only about one time in five.
What would change it: Confirmed lineups or reliable team news showing most of Brighton's listed absentees (especially Mitoma and a fit striker) actually available, or comparable attacking absences for Liverpool, would push this estimate toward 0.28-0.30.
Settlement sourcet-0267

Polymarket prices this at 26.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $142,645 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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