Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T13:55:27.195Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

26.5%bid 26.0% / ask 27.0%24h volume $143K · liquidity $369Kas of 25 Oct, 13:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

25.8%against a market price of 30.5% at the timeNO

Logged 22 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Brier 0.0663

The matchup-level base rate (4 wins in 18 PL meetings, ~22%) is the anchor, and it flatters Brighton for this fixture because this game is at Anfield, where their record is worse than the all-venue figure.
Current form is genuine positive signal: Brighton at 5-1-1 with a 5-0 win over Crystal Palace is playing like a top-four side, materially better than a typical Anfield visitor.
Liverpool's mediocre 3-3-1 start weakens the usual Anfield premium somewhat; they have not been dominant at home this season by results.
Brighton's injury list is strong negative signal: Mitoma, Minteh, Tzimas, Ferguson and Azeez unavailable strips most of their attacking width and striker depth, with Wieffer doubtful and Struijk a late check — this roughly cancels the form upgrade.
Away wins in the Premier League occur only ~27-30% of the time in general, and draws (~25%) are a live alternative, so even an in-form, depleted Brighton side wins this fixture only about one time in five.

What would change it: Confirmed lineups or reliable team news showing most of Brighton's listed absentees (especially Mitoma and a fit striker) actually available, or comparable attacking absences for Liverpool, would push this estimate toward 0.28-0.30.

Settlement source

-4.7 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Brighton won 4 of 18 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (~22%) through March 2026; at Anfield specifically their historical win rate is lower, since several of those four wins came at home.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 21.0%, without sight of the price; published at 25.8%, the market’s 30.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f5, f10, f11, f12) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · recorded 25 Oct 2026, 21:19 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Brighton had won 4 of its 18 Premier League meetings with Liverpool through March 21, 2026. [web:42] as of 2026-03-21 · plstats.uk
Liverpool hosts Brighton at Anfield in a Premier League match on October 25, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 14:00 GMT. [web:3][web:4] as of 2026-10-22 · premierleague.com · within 14 days of this call
Brighton’s 2026–27 Premier League record was 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss after seven matches. [web:87] as of 2026-10-20 · bbc.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
Brighton’s most recent completed Premier League result before the Liverpool fixture was a 5–0 win over Crystal Palace on October 18, 2026. [web:19] as of 2026-10-18 · bbc.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool’s 2026–27 Premier League record was 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss after seven matches. [web:87] as of 2026-10-20 · bbc.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool’s most recent completed result before the Brighton fixture was a 2–1 away win against Brentford on October 17, 2026. [web:90] as of 2026-10-17 · premierleagueschedule.org · within 14 days of this call
A Brighton team-news report listed Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh, Stefanos Tzimas, Evan Ferguson and Femi Azeez as unavailable ahead of the Liverpool fixture. [web:61] as of 2026-10-22 · thefalse9.com · within 14 days of this call
The Brighton team-news report listed Mats Wieffer as a doubt with a knee problem ahead of the Liverpool fixture. [web:61] as of 2026-10-22 · thefalse9.com · within 14 days of this call
The Brighton team-news report said Pascal Struijk was having his workload managed and was due a late check ahead of the Liverpool fixture. [web:61] as of 2026-10-22 · thefalse9.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 26.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $142,645 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0267 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.