Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

Past its close dateContract settles 28 Oct 2026Last checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:55 UTC

Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-28T03:55:27.093Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

45.5%bid 45.0% / ask 46.0%24h volume $11.0M · liquidity $603Kas of 28 Oct, 03:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.210Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

22.5%bid 22.0% / ask 23.0%24h volume $504Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 12 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Oct 28, 26

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December…

Settles Oct 27, 27

If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

36.3%against a market price of 30.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 18 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC
- Netanyahu is the incumbent and is confirmed to be running, so the base rate for an incumbent retaining office (~55%) is the right starting point.
- Recent polls show his position weakened: he trails Eisenkot 38-43 on preferred PM and the October 14-15 Times of Israel poll shows Likud (20) behind Yashar (26) at the party level, which matters because the largest party's leader typically receives the first mandate.
- The KAN poll actually has Netanyahu's bloc slightly ahead on seats (53-50), and Israeli polls have historically underestimated the right (2015, 2022), so the polling signal should be discounted somewhat.
- Critically, neither bloc is projected near the 61 seats needed to govern, which raises the probability of a deadlock in which no PM is sworn in by the market's December cutoff — an outcome that resolves against Netanyahu regardless of his plurality position.
- Netanyahu's unmatched coalition-assembling record (forming governments in 2009 despite losing the plurality, and in 2022) partially offsets the polling deficit, keeping this near but below 50% rather than far below it.
What would change it: A late poll or post-election development showing either bloc at or above 61 seats, or Eisenkot securing commitments (including from Arab or defecting parties) sufficient for a majority coalition.
t-0258

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $10,975,650 on the busier venue.

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