Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Logged 18 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC

• Netanyahu is the incumbent and is confirmed to be running, so the base rate for an incumbent retaining office (~55%) is the right starting point.
• Recent polls show his position weakened: he trails Eisenkot 38-43 on preferred PM and the October 14-15 Times of Israel poll shows Likud (20) behind Yashar (26) at the party level, which matters because the largest party's leader typically receives the first mandate.
• The KAN poll actually has Netanyahu's bloc slightly ahead on seats (53-50), and Israeli polls have historically underestimated the right (2015, 2022), so the polling signal should be discounted somewhat.
• Critically, neither bloc is projected near the 61 seats needed to govern, which raises the probability of a deadlock in which no PM is sworn in by the market's December cutoff — an outcome that resolves against Netanyahu regardless of his plurality position.
• Netanyahu's unmatched coalition-assembling record (forming governments in 2009 despite losing the plurality, and in 2022) partially offsets the polling deficit, keeping this near but below 50% rather than far below it.

What would change it: A late poll or post-election development showing either bloc at or above 61 seats, or Eisenkot securing commitments (including from Arab or defecting parties) sufficient for a majority coalition.

+5.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Since 1992, Israeli incumbent PMs have retained or regained the office after an election roughly half to three-fifths of the time (Sharon 2003, Olmert/Kadima 2006, Netanyahu 2013, 2015, 2022 vs. losses in 1992, 1996, 1999, 2009, 2021), and Netanyahu personally has won the premiership in about five of eight contested cycles; no single retrieved fact carries this rate, so it rests on historical knowledge of the class.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 42.0%, without sight of the price; published at 36.3%, the market’s 30.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f3) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.