Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T03:00:27.199Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
66.5%bid 66.0% / ask 67.0%24h volume $2K · liquidity $60Kas of 9 Sept, 03:00 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 58.0%against a market price of 66.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:37 UTC
- Reference class is a title-contending PL side playing an away league match; Arsenal fit that profile but the away venue and draw-not-counted rule cap the YES probability (f1).
- Arsenal’s early-2026-27 form is strong: 3-0-0, a 2-1 home win over Chelsea, and a prior 1-0 away win at Aston Villa support favorite status (f2, f3, f6).
- The schedule is a meaningful negative: an away Champions League match at Napoli three days earlier raises fatigue/rotation risk for the Sunderland trip (f5).
- Defensive availability is a warning rather than decisive evidence: Mosquera, Timber and Saliba missed the Chelsea match, but their status for Sep 12 is unconfirmed (f4).
- Lack of verified Sunderland form/position and lack of updated Arsenal team news keep this close to the adjusted base rate rather than a confident elite-favorite number.
What would change it: Confirmed Sep 12 team news showing continued absence of Saliba/Timber/Mosquera plus heavy post-Napoli rotation, or evidence Sunderland are in strong early form, would move this estimate down several points; full-strength Arsenal and weak Sunderland form would move it up.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 66.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,558 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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