Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTCLast checked 12 Sept 2026, 18:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T18:55:29.045Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

59.5%bid 59.0% / ask 60.0%24h volume $2.1M · liquidity $1.9Mas of 12 Sept, 18:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

58.0%against a market price of 66.5% at the timeYES

Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:37 UTC · Brier 0.1764

Reference class is a title-contending PL side playing an away league match; Arsenal fit that profile but the away venue and draw-not-counted rule cap the YES probability.
Arsenal’s early-2026-27 form is strong: 3-0-0, a 2-1 home win over Chelsea, and a prior 1-0 away win at Aston Villa support favorite status.
The schedule is a meaningful negative: an away Champions League match at Napoli three days earlier raises fatigue/rotation risk for the Sunderland trip.
Defensive availability is a warning rather than decisive evidence: Mosquera, Timber and Saliba missed the Chelsea match, but their status for Sep 12 is unconfirmed.
Lack of verified Sunderland form/position and lack of updated Arsenal team news keep this close to the adjusted base rate rather than a confident elite-favorite number.

What would change it: Confirmed Sep 12 team news showing continued absence of Saliba/Timber/Mosquera plus heavy post-Napoli rotation, or evidence Sunderland are in strong early form, would move this estimate down several points; full-strength Arsenal and weak Sunderland form would move it up.

Settlement source

-8.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Elite Premier League clubs away from home against clearly weaker or newly promoted/top-flight-minnow opposition win in 90 minutes roughly high-50s to low-60s percent, with draw risk material.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

Arsenal's Premier League fixture on September 12, 2026 is an away match against Sunderland. as of 2026-09-07 · premierleague.com · within 90 days of this call
Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium on September 6, 2026 in the Premier League. as of 2026-09-06 · espn.com · within 90 days of this call
Arsenal are undefeated after three Premier League matches to start the 2026-27 season with a 3-0-0 record, just behind Manchester City on tiebreakers. as of 2026-09-06 · nbcsports.com · within 90 days of this call
Arsenal won away against Aston Villa 1-0 in the Premier League before the Chelsea match, extending their unbeaten start. as of 2026-08-29 · goal.com · within 90 days of this call
Arsenal are scheduled to play a UEFA Champions League away match against Napoli on September 9, 2026, three days before the Sunderland fixture. as of 2026-09-07 · goal.com · within 90 days of this call
Arsenal defenders Cristhian Mosquera, Jurriën Timber and William Saliba were unavailable through injury for the September 6, 2026 match against Chelsea. as of 2026-09-06 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 59.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $2,091,101 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0170 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.