Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 20.0%against a market price of 26.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 3 Sept 2026, 03:29 UTC
- The settlement requires actual availability for purchase by Sept 15 — a typical Sept 8 event implies pre-orders Sept 11 (qualifying) but in-store availability Sept 18 (not qualifying), making the interpretation of 'pre-order as purchase' decisive and uncertain (~60/40 in favor of counting).
- Signal evidence (Kuo, Gurman, supply-chain reporting through 2025) genuinely supports a foldable in Apple's 2026 lineup, but reports also flagged mass-production slippage risk into late 2026/2027, putting P(foldable in the Sept 2026 event) near 50% rather than near-certain.
- Even conditional on a September announcement, premium, supply-constrained Apple products are often staggered (iPhone X: announced Sept, pre-orders late Oct), so P(pre-order by Sept 15 | announced) is roughly 55-65%.
- My independent ~20% sits modestly below the market's 26%; the gap is plausibly explained by thin volume ($3.3k/24h) and traders overweighting 'release year = 2026' headlines while underweighting the purchase-availability clause and the iPhone X-style stagger precedent.
What would change it: Apple confirming a September event where the foldable opens for pre-order on or before Sept 15 would push this to ~80%+; conversely, an event invite/coverage cycle with no foldable mention by Sept 8 collapses it toward 2-3%.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 23%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $18,411 on the busier venue. It closes in 7 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.