Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-15T14:50:26.903Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
0.5%bid 0.2% / ask 0.9%24h volume $2K · liquidity $3Kas of 15 Sept, 14:50 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 24.0%against a market price of 16.5% at the timeNO
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:56 UTC · Brier 0.0576
- The resolution criteria require the device to be purchasable by the general public by Sep 15, not merely announced, and the best available reporting puts the on-sale date at September 18 — three days after the deadline.
- Bloomberg's reporting says Apple planned to introduce the foldable in September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, which is consistent with an announcement around now but not with immediate availability.
- The only path to YES within 7 days is if preorders opening before Sep 15 (typical Apple timing would be ~Sep 11) count as 'available for purchase,' which is a genuinely contested interpretation of the settlement language — this ambiguity is the main reason the probability is not near zero.
- Apple had still not publicly confirmed the foldable as of mid-July 2026, leaving residual risk that it is delayed or not launched at this event at all.
- With only 7 days remaining, time-decay sharply penalizes any scenario requiring a retail launch, since Apple has never made a new flagship category available same-day at announcement.
What would change it: Apple officially announcing that the foldable iPhone is available for purchase or preorder on or before September 15, 2026.
Settlement sourcet-0187 - 20.0%against a market price of 26.0% at the timeNO
Logged 3 Sept 2026, 03:29 UTC · Brier 0.0400
- The settlement requires actual availability for purchase by Sept 15 — a typical Sept 8 event implies pre-orders Sept 11 (qualifying) but in-store availability Sept 18 (not qualifying), making the interpretation of 'pre-order as purchase' decisive and uncertain (~60/40 in favor of counting).
- Signal evidence (Kuo, Gurman, supply-chain reporting through 2025) genuinely supports a foldable in Apple's 2026 lineup, but reports also flagged mass-production slippage risk into late 2026/2027, putting P(foldable in the Sept 2026 event) near 50% rather than near-certain.
- Even conditional on a September announcement, premium, supply-constrained Apple products are often staggered (iPhone X: announced Sept, pre-orders late Oct), so P(pre-order by Sept 15 | announced) is roughly 55-65%.
- My independent ~20% sits modestly below the market's 26%; the gap is plausibly explained by thin volume ($3.3k/24h) and traders overweighting 'release year = 2026' headlines while underweighting the purchase-availability clause and the iPhone X-style stagger precedent.
What would change it: Apple confirming a September event where the foldable opens for pre-order on or before Sept 15 would push this to ~80%+; conversely, an event invite/coverage cycle with no foldable mention by Sept 8 collapses it toward 2-3%.
Settlement sourcet-0164
Polymarket prices this at 0.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $2,387 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.