Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-01T00:20:26.821Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
69.5%bid 69.0% / ask 70.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $19Kas of 1 Oct, 00:20 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-01T00:20:26.310Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
62.1%bid 61.7% / ask 62.4%24h volume $857 · liquidity –as of 1 Oct, 00:20 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts name settlement dates 60 days apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.
Settles Mar 2, 27
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market…
Settles Jan 1, 27
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
Settlement equivalence unverified
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,184 on the busier venue.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.