New pandemic in 2026?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Jan 1, 27
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Settles Dec 31, 26
If Ebola becomes a pandemic in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: New pandemic in 2026?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 7% while Kalshi has it at 2%, a gap of 4.5 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,770 on the busier venue.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.