New pandemic in 2026?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
3.4%bid 3.3% / ask 3.5%24h volume $125 · liquidity $27Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:26.769Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
3.0%bid 2.0% / ask 4.0%24h volume $5as of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Jan 1, 27
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Settles Dec 31, 26
If Ebola becomes a pandemic in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement equivalence unverified
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: New pandemic in 2026?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $125 on the busier venue. It closes in about 63 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
Related markets
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?
- Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.