Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-15T14:50:26.903Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
0.5%bid 0.2% / ask 0.9%24h volume $2K · liquidity $3Kas of 15 Sept, 14:50 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:56 UTC · Brier 0.0576
- The resolution criteria require the device to be purchasable by the general public by Sep 15, not merely announced, and the best available reporting puts the on-sale date at September 18 — three days after the deadline.
- Bloomberg's reporting says Apple planned to introduce the foldable in September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, which is consistent with an announcement around now but not with immediate availability.
- The only path to YES within 7 days is if preorders opening before Sep 15 (typical Apple timing would be ~Sep 11) count as 'available for purchase,' which is a genuinely contested interpretation of the settlement language — this ambiguity is the main reason the probability is not near zero.
- Apple had still not publicly confirmed the foldable as of mid-July 2026, leaving residual risk that it is delayed or not launched at this event at all.
- With only 7 days remaining, time-decay sharply penalizes any scenario requiring a retail launch, since Apple has never made a new flagship category available same-day at announcement.
What would change it: Apple officially announcing that the foldable iPhone is available for purchase or preorder on or before September 15, 2026.
Settlement source+7.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Apple's pattern is to announce iPhones at an early-September event and open general availability roughly 10 days later, so a product expected to 'go on sale' mid-to-late September rarely clears a September 15 purchase-availability bar.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
VOIDsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:32 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:32 UTC · entered by handsettlement
NOsettled 17 Sept 2026, 04:29 UTC · recorded 5 Oct 2026, 01:23 UTC · read from the venuesettlement
Corrected against Polymarket's settlement. Recorded VOID on 15 Sept 2026; Polymarket settled NO on 17 Sept 2026. VOID means the venue refunded or cancelled the market, which it did not. It was recorded as settled on 15 Sept 2026, before Polymarket settled it on 17 Sept 2026.
What this call was reading
- Forbes reported that the foldable iPhone was expected to go on sale on September 18, 2026. as of 2026-09-08 · forbes.com · within 90 days of this call
- Bloomberg reported that Apple planned to introduce its first foldable phone in September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. as of 2026-09-08 · bloomberg.com · within 90 days of this call
- Apple had not publicly confirmed the foldable iPhone, according to a report updated in July 2026. as of 2026-07-14 · meshlaunch.com · within 90 days of this call
Polymarket prices this at 0.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $2,387 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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This call is line t-0187 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.