Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Related event · settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T03:00:32.046Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
14.0%bid 12.6% / ask 15.4%24h volume $10K · liquidity $72Kas of 9 Sept, 03:00 UTCView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T03:00:39.551Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
13.0%bid 10.0% / ask 16.0%24h volume $76 · liquidity –as of 9 Sept, 03:00 UTCView this market's series on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 12 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Sep 20, 26
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li…
Settles Sep 20, 27
If AfD wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Related event · settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $9,921 on the busier venue. It closes in about 11 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.