Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

SettledContract settles 20 Sept 2026Last checked 19 Sept 2026, 23:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-19T23:55:28.936Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

5.5%bid 5.1% / ask 5.8%24h volume $12K · liquidity $88Kas of 19 Sept, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-21T00:00:39.115Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $236 · liquidity –as of 21 Sept, 00:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView this market's series on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 12 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Sep 20, 26

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose li…

Settles Sep 20, 27

If AfD wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Crossbook forecast

2.7%against a market price of 7.8% at the timeNO

Logged 15 Sept 2026, 20:37 UTC · Brier 0.0007

The dominant signal is the huge seat/vote gap: AfD holds 16 seats versus CDU 52, SPD 36, Greens 33 and Die Linke 20, so it must not merely grow but leapfrog several entrenched competitors.
The last comparable Berlin result is even starker: AfD won only 9.1% and 17 of 147 seats in 2023, implying it needs roughly a tripling of vote share and a collapse or split among rivals to finish first.
Berlin's second-vote PR system means seat rank tracks vote rank closely; there is no obvious constituency-map or runoff mechanism that would let a low-teens party convert into the largest seat bloc.
Fragmentation is a small upward adjustment because 17 approved lists can lower the plurality threshold and divided mainstream parties can make a surprise plurality mathematically easier, but it does not close a double-digit structural gap by itself.
Time decay cuts against a late surprise: with voting five days away and not yet begun, only an exceptionally large late swing or polling failure could reverse the structural picture; narrative-driven AfD momentum is weaker evidence than the seat arithmetic.

What would change it: A credible final poll, election-night count, or official early result showing AfD ahead of CDU and the left parties or within roughly five points of first place would sharply raise this estimate.

Settlement source

-5.1 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: For that class the historical rate is about 2% or lower: parties starting around AfD Berlin's 2023 position of 9.1% and 17/147 seats almost never convert directly into a seat plurality in the next PR state election, a rate anchored by f6 and consistent with post-2013 German state-election history from general knowledge.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 20 Sept 2026, 21:13 UTC · recorded 20 Sept 2026, 21:13 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

The current Abgeordnetenhaus has 16 AfD seats, 52 CDU seats, 36 SPD seats, 33 Green seats and 20 Die Linke seats. as of 2026-09-15 · en.wikipedia.org · within 14 days of this call
In the 2023 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, the AfD won 9.1 percent of the vote and 17 of 147 seats. as of 2023-02-12 · en.wikipedia.org
The election decides the composition of Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus, the state parliament, through party second votes that determine the seat distribution. as of 2026-09-15 · rbb24.de · within 14 days of this call
The 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will use 78 constituency districts and a five-year legislative period. as of 2026-09-15 · rbb24.de · within 14 days of this call
The Landeswahlausschuss has approved 17 parties or lists to contest the 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. as of 2026-09-15 · rbb24.de · within 14 days of this call
The AfD is contesting the election with Kristin Brinker as its lead candidate, while the CDU, SPD, Greens and Die Linke are also represented in the current Abgeordnetenhaus. as of 2026-09-15 · en.wikipedia.org · within 14 days of this call
The 2026 Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus is scheduled for September 20, 2026, and voting has not yet occurred as of September 15, 2026. as of 2026-09-15 · rbb24.de · within 14 days of this call

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $12,302 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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