Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

Settled, no longer listedContract settles 6 Sept 2026Last checked 5 Sept 2026, 23:55 UTC

PM17.5%bid 17.0% / ask 18.0%24h volume $14K · liquidity $83Kas of 5 Sept, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

24.0%against a market price of 20.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 2 Sept 2026, 12:43 UTC
- Signal: polling for the Sept 6, 2026 election has consistently shown AfD at ~35–40%, far above its 2021 result of 20.8%, making this a live question rather than a longshot — the reference class here is really 'party polling high-30s with fragmented opposition', not 'any party wins a majority'.
- Signal: the seat-majority math hinges on the 5% threshold — if SPD (~5–7%), Greens, FDP, BSW and Free Voters mostly fail to clear it, 10–15% of votes could be discarded, meaning AfD at ~39–40% of votes could plausibly exceed 50% of allocated seats; this is the dominant path to YES and is sensitive to late swing and BSW/SPD threshold results.
- Narrative caution: 'AfD banned/Brandt-ostracized' stories cut both ways and shouldn't move the estimate much; the hard inputs are vote share and threshold fragmentation; my ~24% sits slightly above the market's 20.5%, plausibly because the market underweights the threshold-scrappage scenario or prices in a late 'cordon sanitaire' tactical-voting effect by CDU/Linke/SPD voters.
What would change it: Final polling average showing AfD at or below ~36%, or BSW and SPD both clearly above the 5% threshold, would push the probability toward single digits.

Context

Polymarket prices this at 18%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $14,336 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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