Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Logged 2 Sept 2026, 12:43 UTC · Brier 0.0576

• Signal: polling for the Sept 6, 2026 election has consistently shown AfD at ~35–40%, far above its 2021 result of 20.8%, making this a live question rather than a longshot — the reference class here is really 'party polling high-30s with fragmented opposition', not 'any party wins a majority'.
• Signal: the seat-majority math hinges on the 5% threshold — if SPD (~5–7%), Greens, FDP, BSW and Free Voters mostly fail to clear it, 10–15% of votes could be discarded, meaning AfD at ~39–40% of votes could plausibly exceed 50% of allocated seats; this is the dominant path to YES and is sensitive to late swing and BSW/SPD threshold results.
• Narrative caution: 'AfD banned/Brandt-ostracized' stories cut both ways and shouldn't move the estimate much; the hard inputs are vote share and threshold fragmentation; my ~24% sits slightly above the market's 20.5%, plausibly because the market underweights the threshold-scrappage scenario or prices in a late 'cordon sanitaire' tactical-voting effect by CDU/Linke/SPD voters.

What would change it: Final polling average showing AfD at or below ~36%, or BSW and SPD both clearly above the 5% threshold, would push the probability toward single digits.

+3.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In German state elections, a single party winning an outright Landtag majority is rare (no party has done so in any state in decades except in exceptional cases), so the unconditional base rate is well under 10%.

Chosen by hand.