Texans vs. Jaguars

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTCLast checked 18 Oct 2026, 13:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-18T13:25:27.035Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

43.5%bid 43.0% / ask 44.0%24h volume $123K · liquidity $1.8Mas of 18 Oct, 13:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

38.8%against a market price of 42.5% at the timeYES
Logged 12 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Brier 0.3752
- Record gap favors Jacksonville: 4-1 vs 1-4 through five games is a strong signal of team quality differential this early in the season.
- Jacksonville is the designated home team and this is effectively their annual London game at Wembley, where they have extensive experience, adding a modest edge beyond the neutral-venue baseline.
- Both starting quarterbacks (Stroud, Lawrence) are confirmed in the lineups, so the handicap rests on team quality rather than QB uncertainty.
- Countervailing signal for Houston: they just dominated Tennessee 26-3, suggesting their 1-4 record may understate current form; meanwhile Jacksonville's 19-17 win over Philadelphia was narrow.
- Houston's injuries are material on offense (RB Montgomery week-to-week, S Pitre week-to-week), while Jacksonville's questionable list (Harrison, Brown, Matiscik) is lighter and not yet final, a slight net negative for the Texans but not decisive.
- Historical all-time series (Texans lead 32-16) is weak, low-signal narrative driven by past rosters; given little weight.
What would change it: If the final injury report rules out multiple Jaguar starters (especially LT Harrison protecting Lawrence) while Montgomery and Pitre are cleared for Houston, the estimate should move several points toward the Texans.
Settlement sourcet-0242

Polymarket prices this at 43.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $123,185 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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