Texans vs. Jaguars

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTCLast checked 18 Oct 2026, 13:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-18T13:25:27.035Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

43.5%bid 43.0% / ask 44.0%24h volume $123K · liquidity $1.8Mas of 18 Oct, 13:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

38.8%against a market price of 42.5% at the timeYES

Logged 12 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Brier 0.3752

Record gap favors Jacksonville: 4-1 vs 1-4 through five games is a strong signal of team quality differential this early in the season.
Jacksonville is the designated home team and this is effectively their annual London game at Wembley, where they have extensive experience, adding a modest edge beyond the neutral-venue baseline.
Both starting quarterbacks (Stroud, Lawrence) are confirmed in the lineups, so the handicap rests on team quality rather than QB uncertainty.
Countervailing signal for Houston: they just dominated Tennessee 26-3, suggesting their 1-4 record may understate current form; meanwhile Jacksonville's 19-17 win over Philadelphia was narrow.
Houston's injuries are material on offense (RB Montgomery week-to-week, S Pitre week-to-week), while Jacksonville's questionable list (Harrison, Brown, Matiscik) is lighter and not yet final, a slight net negative for the Texans but not decisive.
Historical all-time series (Texans lead 32-16) is weak, low-signal narrative driven by past rosters; given little weight.

What would change it: If the final injury report rules out multiple Jaguar starters (especially LT Harrison protecting Lawrence) while Montgomery and Pitre are cleared for Houston, the estimate should move several points toward the Texans.

Settlement source

-3.7 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Historically, NFL teams with roughly a 1-4 record beat 4-1 opponents about 30% of the time (the stronger-record team wins ~70%), a class-rate informed here by the teams' current records in a cited source and a cited source.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 35.0%, without sight of the price; published at 38.8%, the market’s 42.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f4) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 18 Oct 2026, 17:24 UTC · recorded 19 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

The Texans' 2026 season record was 1-4 after five games. [web:18] as of 2026-10-12 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Jaguars' 2026 season record was 4-1 after five games. [web:20] as of 2026-10-12 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
The Texans and Jaguars are scheduled to play on October 18, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. EDT at Wembley Stadium, with Jacksonville listed as the home team. [web:74] as of 2026-10-12 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
The listed Texans Week 6 lineup names C.J. Stroud at quarterback. [web:37] as of 2026-10-11 · rotowire.com · within 14 days of this call
The listed Jaguars Week 6 lineup names Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. [web:37] as of 2026-10-11 · rotowire.com · within 14 days of this call
The Texans beat the Titans 26-3 on October 11, 2026, a 23-point margin. [web:16] as of 2026-10-11 · abc13.com · within 14 days of this call
The Jaguars beat the Eagles 19-17 on October 11, 2026, a two-point margin. [web:20] as of 2026-10-11 · jaguars.com · within 14 days of this call
Texans safety Jalen Pitre was reported week-to-week with a shoulder injury on October 12. [web:39] as of 2026-10-12 · rotowire.com · within 14 days of this call
Texans running back David Montgomery was reported week-to-week with a groin injury on October 12. [web:33] as of 2026-10-12 · nbcsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said Woody Marks would carry the load while Montgomery was sidelined. [web:33] as of 2026-10-12 · nbcsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Jaguars offensive tackle Anton Harrison, cornerback Montaric Brown, and long snapper Ross Matiscik were listed as questionable with injuries for the October 18 game. [web:31] as of 2026-10-12 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Through their November 9, 2025 meeting, the Texans led the all-time series against the Jaguars 32-16. [web:63] as of 2025-11-09 · en.wikipedia.org

Polymarket prices this at 43.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $123,185 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0242 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.