Spread: Vikings (-6.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T16:55:28.403Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

54.5%bid 54.0% / ask 55.0%24h volume $330K · liquidity $491Kas of 25 Oct, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

45.3%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC · Brier 0.2048
- The retrieved base rate (31.8% cover for 6+ point favorites in 2026) is the named outside view, but its 25-game sample is small and far below the multi-decade cover rate for touchdown-sized favorites, so I regress upward toward the long-run mean before applying case evidence.
- Matchup signal favors the Vikings: they are 5-0 at home against a 2-4 Colts team that just lost to the Titans, and Minnesota is the stronger side by record, though the 6.5 line already prices most of that in.
- Colts injuries (Sauce Gardner doubtful, Alec Pierce on IR) weaken Indianapolis's pass defense and receiving corps, modestly raising the chance of a Vikings blowout.
- Counter-signal: Minnesota's own offensive line and weapons are banged up (Darrisaw, Hockenson questionable with concussions; Addison questionable), which compresses expected offensive output and makes covering a full touchdown harder; Mason only opening a practice window suggests backfield depth concerns.
- Divisional/conference context (AFC vs NFC, non-rivalry game) adds little; home field at U.S. Bank Stadium is standard and already embedded in the line.
What would change it: If Darrisaw, Hockenson, and Addison are all ruled out (or Gardner unexpectedly plays), the Vikings' covering probability drops toward the raw 31.8% base rate; conversely, full clearance of all Vikings questionables would push it toward 0.50.
Settlement sourcet-0263

Polymarket prices this at 54.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $330,296 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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