Spread: Vikings (-6.5)

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T16:55:28.403Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

54.5%bid 54.0% / ask 55.0%24h volume $330K · liquidity $491Kas of 25 Oct, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

45.3%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeNO

Logged 20 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC · Brier 0.2048

The retrieved base rate (31.8% cover for 6+ point favorites in 2026) is the named outside view, but its 25-game sample is small and far below the multi-decade cover rate for touchdown-sized favorites, so I regress upward toward the long-run mean before applying case evidence.
Matchup signal favors the Vikings: they are 5-0 at home against a 2-4 Colts team that just lost to the Titans, and Minnesota is the stronger side by record, though the 6.5 line already prices most of that in.
Colts injuries (Sauce Gardner doubtful, Alec Pierce on IR) weaken Indianapolis's pass defense and receiving corps, modestly raising the chance of a Vikings blowout.
Counter-signal: Minnesota's own offensive line and weapons are banged up (Darrisaw, Hockenson questionable with concussions; Addison questionable), which compresses expected offensive output and makes covering a full touchdown harder; Mason only opening a practice window suggests backfield depth concerns.
Divisional/conference context (AFC vs NFC, non-rivalry game) adds little; home field at U.S. Bank Stadium is standard and already embedded in the line.

What would change it: If Darrisaw, Hockenson, and Addison are all ruled out (or Gardner unexpectedly plays), the Vikings' covering probability drops toward the raw 31.8% base rate; conversely, full clearance of all Vikings questionables would push it toward 0.50.

Settlement source

-3.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Through 2026 Week 6, NFL favorites laying six or more points covered only 31.8% of decisions (7-15-3 ATS); this is a small 25-game sample that sits well below the long-run cover rate for ~TD favorites (~45-48%).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 42.0%, without sight of the price; published at 45.3%, the market’s 48.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f12) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 25 Oct 2026, 20:03 UTC · recorded 25 Oct 2026, 21:19 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Through 2026 Week 6, NFL favorites laying six or more points had a 7-15-3 ATS record, covering 31.8% of decisions when pushes are excluded. [web:75] as of 2026-10-18 · sports.yahoo.com · within 14 days of this call
The Colts have a 2-4 record after six games, so the October 25 game is not their first game of the 2026 season. [web:29] as of 2026-10-20 · vikings.com · within 14 days of this call
The Colts lost to the Titans 26-20 on October 18. [web:32] as of 2026-10-18 · colts.com · within 14 days of this call
The Vikings have a 5-0 record after five games, so the October 25 game is not their first game of the 2026 season. [web:50] as of 2026-10-20 · vikings.com · within 14 days of this call
The Colts are scheduled to play the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 25, 2026, at 1:00 p.m. ET. [web:16] as of 2026-10-20 · paramountplus.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner as doubtful for October 25 after reporting a mild left calf strain on October 19. [web:5] as of 2026-10-19 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce on injured reserve and reported that his 21-day practice window would not open in Week 7. [web:5] as of 2026-10-19 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
The Vikings listed offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw as questionable for Week 7 with a concussion. [web:131] as of 2026-10-19 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
The Vikings listed tight end T.J. Hockenson as questionable for Week 7 with a concussion. [web:131] as of 2026-10-19 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
The Vikings listed wide receiver Jordan Addison as questionable for Week 7 with a hamstring injury. [web:123] as of 2026-10-19 · minnesotavikings.io · within 14 days of this call
The Vikings designated running back Jordan Mason to return to practice, opening a 21-day evaluation window. [web:125] as of 2026-10-19 · vikings.com · within 14 days of this call
The Indianapolis Colts are an NFL professional franchise in the AFC South division of the AFC. [web:25] as of 2026-10-20 · en.wikipedia.org · within 14 days of this call
The Minnesota Vikings are an NFL professional franchise in the NFC North division of the NFC. [web:28] as of 2026-10-20 · britannica.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 54.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $330,296 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0263 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.