Spread: Texans (-1.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 20 Sept 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-20T16:55:28.739Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

55.5%bid 55.0% / ask 56.0%24h volume $928 · liquidity $632Kas of 20 Sept, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

48.6%against a market price of 54.0% at the timeNO
Logged 18 Sept 2026, 13:50 UTC · Brier 0.2362
- The outside view is nearly a coin flip: short home favorites in the -1 to -3 band have covered only 49.6% of decided games, so Texans -1.5 starts just under 50% rather than with a meaningful favorite edge.
- One-game season form is weak signal and roughly offsets: Cincinnati is 1-0 after a six-point win over Tampa Bay, while Houston is 0-1 but lost by only five to Buffalo, so I do not move far from the class rate on results alone.
- Injury signal is mixed but slightly unfavorable to Houston's cover case: Burrow's back limitation creates real Bengals downside, yet Houston has more non-participants, including Nico Collins and Jadeveon Clowney, with final statuses still unknown close to kickoff.
What would change it: Final game statuses showing Burrow full-go while Collins and/or Clowney are ruled out would push this lower, while Burrow being ruled out or clearly compromised would push it above the base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0201

Context

Polymarket prices this at 55.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $928 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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