Spread: Packers (-1.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 19 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-19T00:15:28.891Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

45.5%bid 45.0% / ask 46.0%24h volume $191K · liquidity $2.0Mas of 19 Oct, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

51.7%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeYES
Logged 16 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.2328
- The line itself (-1.5 at Lambeau) already prices Green Bay as only a marginal favorite, so the base rate for short home favorites winning by 2+ (~52%) is the right anchor rather than any narrative about team quality.
- Form tilts modestly toward Green Bay: the Packers are 3-2 coming off a 24-point win over Chicago, while Dallas is 2-3 coming off an eight-point loss to Tampa Bay. This is real but weak signal — two recent results are an anchor nudge, not a distribution.
- Injury picture roughly offsets, with a slight edge to Dallas's health on offense: CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Guyton practiced fully, while Green Bay had two starters-level players (Nixon, Moore) out of Thursday practice. Dallas's cornerback depth (Moore on IR, Durant and Speed questionable) cuts the other way. Net: near-neutral, mostly narrative.
- Home field at Lambeau in a prime-time Sunday night slot is already embedded in the short spread; with a one-possession game expected, the 1-point-win and Cowboys-win tails together keep this well short of 60%.
What would change it: A late-week downgrade of a Packers cornerstone (e.g., starting quarterback or multiple offensive linemen ruled out), or conversely confirmation that Lamb is limited, would move this several points; also a line move to Packers -3 or to a pick'em would signal my 55% is stale.
Settlement sourcet-0252

Polymarket prices this at 45.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $191,306 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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