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Spread: Packers (-1.5)

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SettledEvent date Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 19 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC
PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-19T00:15:28.891Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

45.5%bid 45.0% / ask 46.0%24h volume $191K · liquidity $2.0Mas of 19 Oct, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

51.7%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeYES

Logged 16 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.2328

  • The line itself (-1.5 at Lambeau) already prices Green Bay as only a marginal favorite, so the base rate for short home favorites winning by 2+ (~52%) is the right anchor rather than any narrative about team quality.
  • Form tilts modestly toward Green Bay: the Packers are 3-2 coming off a 24-point win over Chicago, while Dallas is 2-3 coming off an eight-point loss to Tampa Bay. This is real but weak signal — two recent results are an anchor nudge, not a distribution.
  • Injury picture roughly offsets, with a slight edge to Dallas's health on offense: CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Guyton practiced fully, while Green Bay had two starters-level players (Nixon, Moore) out of Thursday practice. Dallas's cornerback depth (Moore on IR, Durant and Speed questionable) cuts the other way. Net: near-neutral, mostly narrative.
  • Home field at Lambeau in a prime-time Sunday night slot is already embedded in the short spread; with a one-possession game expected, the 1-point-win and Cowboys-win tails together keep this well short of 60%.

What would change it: A late-week downgrade of a Packers cornerstone (e.g., starting quarterback or multiple offensive linemen ruled out), or conversely confirmation that Lamb is limited, would move this several points; also a line move to Packers -3 or to a pick'em would signal my 55% is stale.

Settlement source

+3.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Short home favorites (around -1 to -3) historically win by 2+ points in the low-to-mid 50% range — they win outright a bit over half the time and nearly all NFL wins are by 2+ — the retrieved facts note the specific 1–3 point ATS band could not be established from records, so this rate is stated from general knowledge of the class.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 55.0%, without sight of the price; published at 51.7%, the market’s 48.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

  1. YESsettled 19 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC · recorded 19 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

  • The Cowboys are scheduled to play the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay on October 18, 2026, at 8:20 p.m. ET. as of 2026-10-16 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Cowboys had a 2-3 regular-season record as of October 16, 2026. as of 2026-10-16 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Cowboys most recently lost to the Buccaneers 24-16 on October 8, an eight-point margin. as of 2026-10-08 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Packers had a 3-2 regular-season record as of October 16, 2026. as of 2026-10-16 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Packers most recently beat the Bears 31-7 on October 11, a 24-point margin. as of 2026-10-11 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Cowboys injury listing marked linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, cornerbacks Cobie Durant and Ameer Speed, and tackle Drew Shelton questionable for the Packers game. as of 2026-10-16 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Cowboys injury listing placed cornerback Devin Moore on IR-R for a hip injury. as of 2026-10-16 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Packers injury listing marked cornerback Keisean Nixon, wide receiver Skyy Moore, and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt questionable for the Cowboys game. as of 2026-10-16 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
  • Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and tackle Tyler Guyton fully participated in Thursday practice. as of 2026-10-15 · dallascowboys.com · within 14 days of this call
  • Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon and wide receiver Skyy Moore did not participate in Thursday practice, while defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt was limited. as of 2026-10-15 · packers.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 45.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $191,306 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0252 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.