Spread: Lions (-3.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 20:25 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 20:20 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T20:20:27.042Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

53.5%bid 53.0% / ask 54.0%24h volume $88K · liquidity $1.4Mas of 25 Oct, 20:20 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

51.7%against a market price of 47.5% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Oct 2026, 21:01 UTC · Brier 0.2678
- The relevant class — short NFL favorites at or inside 3.5 points — covers at roughly 55%, so the Lions' task of winning by 4+ starts slightly better than a coin flip rather than near even.
- Detroit is the home side at Ford Field, and home favorites cluster within this class, which nudges the cover probability up from the blended home/away base rate.
- Green Bay's best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is not practicing in Week 7, and the Lions expect key personnel (Branch, Mays) available — a modest signal in Detroit's favor for margin, though game status remains uncertain.
- Countervailing signal: Green Bay is 4-2 and coming off a double-digit win, and Josh Jacobs may return, so this is not a mismatch; the 3.5 line sitting on a key number means push-adjacent outcomes (3-point Lions win) are live and cut against YES.
- Detroit's last outing was a 24-point win, but one result is an anchor, not a distribution; I weight it only lightly given the small sample and a different opponent.
What would change it: Confirmation that Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs both play at full strength for Green Bay would push my estimate back toward or below the 54.7% base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0262

Polymarket prices this at 53.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $88,006 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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