Spread: Lions (-3.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 20:25 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 20:20 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T20:20:27.042Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

53.5%bid 53.0% / ask 54.0%24h volume $88K · liquidity $1.4Mas of 25 Oct, 20:20 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

51.7%against a market price of 47.5% at the timeNO

Logged 20 Oct 2026, 21:01 UTC · Brier 0.2678

The relevant class — short NFL favorites at or inside 3.5 points — covers at roughly 55%, so the Lions' task of winning by 4+ starts slightly better than a coin flip rather than near even.
Detroit is the home side at Ford Field, and home favorites cluster within this class, which nudges the cover probability up from the blended home/away base rate.
Green Bay's best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is not practicing in Week 7, and the Lions expect key personnel (Branch, Mays) available — a modest signal in Detroit's favor for margin, though game status remains uncertain.
Countervailing signal: Green Bay is 4-2 and coming off a double-digit win, and Josh Jacobs may return, so this is not a mismatch; the 3.5 line sitting on a key number means push-adjacent outcomes (3-point Lions win) are live and cut against YES.
Detroit's last outing was a 24-point win, but one result is an anchor, not a distribution; I weight it only lightly given the small sample and a different opponent.

What would change it: Confirmation that Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs both play at full strength for Green Bay would push my estimate back toward or below the 54.7% base rate.

Settlement source

+4.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: NFL favorites of 3.5 points or fewer covered at a 54.7% rate (29-24 ATS) through the first six weeks of the 2025 season.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 56.0%, without sight of the price; published at 51.7%, the market’s 47.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f9, f10) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 25 Oct 2026, 23:47 UTC · recorded 26 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

NFL favorites of 3.5 points or fewer went 29-24 against the spread, a 54.7% cover rate, through the first six weeks of the 2025 season. [web:61] as of 2025-10-16 · sports.yahoo.com
Green Bay is scheduled to visit Detroit at Ford Field on October 25, 2026, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET. [web:14] as of 2026-10-20 · detroitlions.com · within 14 days of this call
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said Micah Parsons would not practice during Week 7. [web:93] as of 2026-10-19 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Lions head coach Dan Campbell said he expected safety Brian Branch to play against Green Bay. [web:91] as of 2026-10-19 · nbcsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Lions head coach Dan Campbell said he expected center Cade Mays to play against Green Bay. [web:91] as of 2026-10-19 · nbcsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Green Bay entered the scheduled game with a 4-2 record after six games, so it was not the Packers' first game of the season. [web:56] as of 2026-10-20 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Packers' most recent result was a 23-13 win over Dallas on October 18, 2026, a 10-point margin. [web:1] as of 2026-10-18 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Packers running back Josh Jacobs was scheduled for a full week of practice, with his game status undetermined. [web:9] as of 2026-10-19 · packers.com · within 14 days of this call
The Lions' most recent result was a 45-21 win over Arizona on October 11, 2026, a 24-point margin. [web:14] as of 2026-10-11 · detroitlions.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 53.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $88,006 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0262 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.