Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTCLast checked 9 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-09T00:10:31.669Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

77.5%bid 77.0% / ask 78.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $27Kas of 9 Oct, 00:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

69.3%against a market price of 77.5% at the timeNO
Logged 5 Oct 2026, 01:44 UTC · Brier 0.4796
- The market's -2.5 line places Dallas squarely in the home-favorite 1.5–3.5 band, where the historical cover rate is 48.2% — essentially a coin flip before case-specific evidence.
- Tampa Bay's starting QB Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb and expected to miss this game; the Week 5 starter (rookie Jalon Daniels) is unconfirmed, which is strong signal favoring the favorite covering.
- Tampa Bay is 0–4 and carrying multiple defensive injuries (Bain, Kieft, Morrison out; Dennis and Nunez-Roches questionable), compounding the quarterback uncertainty.
- Dallas is a mediocre 2–2 and has its own absences (Durant, Overshown out; Bullard and Thompson on IR), which tempers the upgrade and keeps this from being a runaway cover case.
- Tampa Bay's losses have been competitive (17–14 to Green Bay most recently), and short-rest Thursday games add variance, so the adjustment off the base rate should be moderate rather than aggressive.
What would change it: Confirmation before Thursday that Tampa Bay's quarterback situation stabilizes (e.g., Mayfield returns early or Daniels is confirmed and sharp in practice reports) while Dallas adds defensive injuries would push this back toward or below the base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0219

Polymarket prices this at 77.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,019 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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