Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTCLast checked 9 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-09T00:10:31.669Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

77.5%bid 77.0% / ask 78.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $27Kas of 9 Oct, 00:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

69.3%against a market price of 77.5% at the timeNO

Logged 5 Oct 2026, 01:44 UTC · Brier 0.4796

The market's -2.5 line places Dallas squarely in the home-favorite 1.5–3.5 band, where the historical cover rate is 48.2% — essentially a coin flip before case-specific evidence.
Tampa Bay's starting QB Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb and expected to miss this game; the Week 5 starter (rookie Jalon Daniels) is unconfirmed, which is strong signal favoring the favorite covering.
Tampa Bay is 0–4 and carrying multiple defensive injuries (Bain, Kieft, Morrison out; Dennis and Nunez-Roches questionable), compounding the quarterback uncertainty.
Dallas is a mediocre 2–2 and has its own absences (Durant, Overshown out; Bullard and Thompson on IR), which tempers the upgrade and keeps this from being a runaway cover case.
Tampa Bay's losses have been competitive (17–14 to Green Bay most recently), and short-rest Thursday games add variance, so the adjustment off the base rate should be moderate rather than aggressive.

What would change it: Confirmation before Thursday that Tampa Bay's quarterback situation stabilizes (e.g., Mayfield returns early or Daniels is confirmed and sharp in practice reports) while Dallas adds defensive injuries would push this back toward or below the base rate.

Settlement source

-8.3 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: From the start of the 2020 NFL season through October 12, 2025, home favorites of 1.5–3.5 points covered 48.2% of decisions (164–176–7).

Chosen by hand.

Formed blind at 61.0%, without sight of the price; published at 69.3%, the market’s 77.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f5, f6) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 9 Oct 2026, 03:36 UTC · recorded 9 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

From the start of the 2020 NFL season through October 12, 2025, home favorites of 1.5 to 3.5 points went 164–176–7 against the spread, covering 48.2% of decisions. [web:57] as of 2025-10-12 · teamrankings.com
Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles said Baker Mayfield would miss at least three weeks after dislocating his right thumb, and Mayfield was expected to be unavailable against Dallas. [web:22] as of 2026-10-03 · footballnationusa.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay named rookie Jalon Daniels its Week 4 starting quarterback, and the available report said his Week 5 starting status was not confirmed. [web:22] as of 2026-10-03 · footballnationusa.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay had a 0–4 regular-season record after losing to Green Bay 17–14 on October 4, a three-point margin, and that was not its first game of the season. [web:13] as of 2026-10-04 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay's October 2 injury report for its Green Bay game listed linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. as out with a groin and shoulder injury. [web:24] as of 2026-10-02 · buccaneers.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay's October 2 injury report for its Green Bay game listed tight end Ko Kieft as out with an elbow injury. [web:24] as of 2026-10-02 · buccaneers.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay's October 2 injury report for its Green Bay game listed cornerback Benjamin Morrison as out with a quadriceps injury. [web:24] as of 2026-10-02 · buccaneers.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay's October 2 injury report for its Green Bay game listed linebacker SirVocea Dennis as questionable with a calf injury. [web:24] as of 2026-10-02 · buccaneers.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay's October 2 injury report for its Green Bay game listed defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches as questionable with an ankle and foot injury. [web:24] as of 2026-10-02 · buccaneers.com · within 14 days of this call
Dallas had a 2–2 regular-season record after beating Houston 34–30 on October 4, a four-point margin, and that was not its first game of the season. [web:6] as of 2026-10-04 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Dallas cornerback Cobie Durant as out with a hamstring injury and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown as out with a hamstring injury ahead of the October 8 game. [web:16] as of 2026-10-04 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Dallas defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard on injured reserve with a calf injury and an estimated return date of November 1. [web:16] as of 2026-10-04 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Dallas safety Jalen Thompson on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and an estimated return date of November 1. [web:16] as of 2026-10-04 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Tampa Bay is scheduled to play Dallas at AT&T Stadium on Thursday, October 8, 2026, at 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time. [web:7] as of 2026-10-05 · buccaneers.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 77.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,019 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0219 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.