Ravens vs. Falcons

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-12T00:15:27.341Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

37.5%bid 37.0% / ask 38.0%24h volume $1.3M · liquidity $3.0Mas of 12 Oct, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

42.3%against a market price of 37.5% at the timeYES
Logged 6 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Brier 0.3335
- Ravens are the road team, so the relevant base rate is the ~43.4% road win rate, not a coin flip.
- Ravens' better record (3-1 vs 2-2) is a modest positive signal, though the Falcons' most recent win was a 21-point blowout, muting the form edge.
- Lamar Jackson's ankle injury with uncertain availability is the dominant case-specific signal; a Tyler Huntley start would materially lower Baltimore's win probability, and the uncertainty itself drags the estimate toward or below the road base rate.
- Both teams carry notable injury lists — Ravens are missing multiple offensive linemen (Gwyn, Pocic) and a top pass rusher (Hendrickson), with Zay Flowers questionable; the Falcons' injuries (Abdullah, Deablo, Ebukam) are all questionable rather than out — roughly a wash, slight edge to Atlanta given Baltimore's outs.
- Falcons have a settled starting quarterback (Penix), which stabilizes their side relative to Baltimore's quarterback uncertainty.
- Five days to kickoff leaves meaningful resolution time on Jackson's status; treating his availability as roughly a coin flip to likely-play and blending yields a modest upgrade over the pure road base rate given Baltimore's superior roster and record.
What would change it: Confirmation that Lamar Jackson will start and is near full mobility would push my estimate above 0.50; confirmation that Huntley starts would push it to roughly 0.35-0.40.
Settlement sourcet-0226

Polymarket prices this at 37.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,346,187 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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