Ravens vs. Falcons

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-12T00:15:27.341Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

37.5%bid 37.0% / ask 38.0%24h volume $1.3M · liquidity $3.0Mas of 12 Oct, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

42.3%against a market price of 37.5% at the timeYES

Logged 6 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Brier 0.3335

Ravens are the road team, so the relevant base rate is the ~43.4% road win rate, not a coin flip.
Ravens' better record (3-1 vs 2-2) is a modest positive signal, though the Falcons' most recent win was a 21-point blowout, muting the form edge.
Lamar Jackson's ankle injury with uncertain availability is the dominant case-specific signal; a Tyler Huntley start would materially lower Baltimore's win probability, and the uncertainty itself drags the estimate toward or below the road base rate.
Both teams carry notable injury lists — Ravens are missing multiple offensive linemen (Gwyn, Pocic) and a top pass rusher (Hendrickson), with Zay Flowers questionable; the Falcons' injuries (Abdullah, Deablo, Ebukam) are all questionable rather than out — roughly a wash, slight edge to Atlanta given Baltimore's outs.
Falcons have a settled starting quarterback (Penix), which stabilizes their side relative to Baltimore's quarterback uncertainty.
Five days to kickoff leaves meaningful resolution time on Jackson's status; treating his availability as roughly a coin flip to likely-play and blending yields a modest upgrade over the pure road base rate given Baltimore's superior roster and record.

What would change it: Confirmation that Lamar Jackson will start and is near full mobility would push my estimate above 0.50; confirmation that Huntley starts would push it to roughly 0.35-0.40.

Settlement source

+4.7 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: From 1999-2025, NFL home teams won 56.6% of 7,182 games, so road teams like the Ravens here win about 43.4% (the game is in Atlanta).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 47.0%, without sight of the price; published at 42.3%, the market’s 37.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 12 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC · recorded 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

From 1999 through 2025, home teams won 56.6% of 7,182 NFL games with true home fields, including regular-season and postseason games. as of 2025-12-31 · nflanalytic.com
The Ravens are scheduled to play at the Falcons on October 11, 2026, at 8:20 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. as of 2026-10-06 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
The Ravens' 2026 regular-season record is 3-1 through October 4. as of 2026-10-04 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
The Falcons' 2026 regular-season record is 2-2 through October 5. as of 2026-10-05 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
The Falcons' most recent result was a 45-24 win over New Orleans on October 5, a 21-point margin. as of 2026-10-05 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
The Ravens' most recent result was a 24-18 win over Tennessee on October 4, a six-point margin. as of 2026-10-04 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson injured his left ankle on October 4, and coach Jesse Minter said on October 5 that Jackson's availability for the Falcons game was uncertain; Tyler Huntley would start if Jackson could not play. as of 2026-10-05 · cbssports.com · within 14 days of this call
Ravens offensive lineman Jovaughn Gwyn was listed as out with an ankle injury for the Falcons game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Ravens linebacker Trey Hendrickson was listed as out with a finger injury for the Falcons game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Ravens center Ethan Pocic was listed as out with a knee injury for the Falcons game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury for the Falcons game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Ravens wide receiver Chris Moore was listed as questionable with an ankle injury for the Falcons game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Falcons linebacker Yasir Abdullah was listed as questionable with an illness for the Ravens game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Falcons linebacker Divine Deablo was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury for the Ravens game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Falcons defensive end Samson Ebukam was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury for the Ravens game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Michael Penix Jr. was listed as the Falcons' starting quarterback for the Ravens game. as of 2026-10-06 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 37.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,346,187 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0226 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.