Patriots vs. Seahawks
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 42.0%against a market price of 37.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC
- Outside view: this is a near-coin-flip matchup between two 14-3 teams (f11, f12), so the reference class is 'evenly matched teams, one at home,' where the home side (Seattle) wins ~57-60% of the time.
- The game is at Lumen Field in Seattle (f2), giving Seattle the standard home-field edge plus crowd-noise advantage; this is the single strongest signal in the fact set.
- Seattle just beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX seven months ago (f1) and was the NFC's top seed (f12); recent head-to-head and championship pedigree are modest but real signal, not narrative, given roster continuity into Week 1.
- New England's injury list is heavier on high-leverage starters: lead RB TreVeyon Henderson hasn't practiced since August 24 (f5) and starting DT Christian Barmore missed practice with a new knee injury (f6); Seattle's absences are concentrated at one position (safety: Okada out, Emmanwori limited) but with Julian Love still available (f8, f9, f10). Net injury signal slightly favors Seattle.
- The Patriots' first-ever Wednesday game (f3) is a scheduling anomaly, but with a standard Week 1 ramp it carries no clear directional edge and I treat it as narrative rather than signal.
- New England's coaching staff (Vrabel, McDaniels, both Coach of the Year winners per f13) is a genuine strength that keeps this from drifting further toward Seattle; coaching edges are real but small in single-game terms.
- All-time head-to-head (f4) spans decades of different rosters and is essentially noise for this estimate.
What would change it: Final injury designations showing Henderson and Barmore active while both Seattle safeties are ruled out would push my estimate up toward 0.48; confirmation that both Patriots starters are out would push it toward 0.37.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 38%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,683 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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