Patriots vs. Seahawks

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 10 Sept 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-10T00:15:26.803Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

38.5%bid 38.0% / ask 39.0%24h volume $295K · liquidity $3.5Mas of 10 Sept, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

42.0%against a market price of 37.5% at the timeNO
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC · Brier 0.1764
- Outside view: this is a near-coin-flip matchup between two 14-3 teams, so the reference class is 'evenly matched teams, one at home,' where the home side (Seattle) wins ~57-60% of the time.
- The game is at Lumen Field in Seattle, giving Seattle the standard home-field edge plus crowd-noise advantage; this is the single strongest signal in the fact set.
- Seattle just beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX seven months ago and was the NFC's top seed; recent head-to-head and championship pedigree are modest but real signal, not narrative, given roster continuity into Week 1.
- New England's injury list is heavier on high-leverage starters: lead RB TreVeyon Henderson hasn't practiced since August 24 and starting DT Christian Barmore missed practice with a new knee injury; Seattle's absences are concentrated at one position (safety: Okada out, Emmanwori limited) but with Julian Love still available. Net injury signal slightly favors Seattle.
- The Patriots' first-ever Wednesday game is a scheduling anomaly, but with a standard Week 1 ramp it carries no clear directional edge and I treat it as narrative rather than signal.
- New England's coaching staff (Vrabel, McDaniels, both Coach of the Year winners) is a genuine strength that keeps this from drifting further toward Seattle; coaching edges are real but small in single-game terms.
- All-time head-to-head spans decades of different rosters and is essentially noise for this estimate.
What would change it: Final injury designations showing Henderson and Barmore active while both Seattle safeties are ruled out would push my estimate up toward 0.48; confirmation that both Patriots starters are out would push it toward 0.37.
Settlement sourcet-0168

Polymarket prices this at 38.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $295,382 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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