Patriots vs. Seahawks

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 10 Sept 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-10T00:15:26.803Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

38.5%bid 38.0% / ask 39.0%24h volume $295K · liquidity $3.5Mas of 10 Sept, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

42.0%against a market price of 37.5% at the timeNO

Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:34 UTC · Brier 0.1764

Outside view: this is a near-coin-flip matchup between two 14-3 teams, so the reference class is 'evenly matched teams, one at home,' where the home side (Seattle) wins ~57-60% of the time.
The game is at Lumen Field in Seattle, giving Seattle the standard home-field edge plus crowd-noise advantage; this is the single strongest signal in the fact set.
Seattle just beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX seven months ago and was the NFC's top seed; recent head-to-head and championship pedigree are modest but real signal, not narrative, given roster continuity into Week 1.
New England's injury list is heavier on high-leverage starters: lead RB TreVeyon Henderson hasn't practiced since August 24 and starting DT Christian Barmore missed practice with a new knee injury; Seattle's absences are concentrated at one position (safety: Okada out, Emmanwori limited) but with Julian Love still available. Net injury signal slightly favors Seattle.
The Patriots' first-ever Wednesday game is a scheduling anomaly, but with a standard Week 1 ramp it carries no clear directional edge and I treat it as narrative rather than signal.
New England's coaching staff (Vrabel, McDaniels, both Coach of the Year winners) is a genuine strength that keeps this from drifting further toward Seattle; coaching edges are real but small in single-game terms.
All-time head-to-head spans decades of different rosters and is essentially noise for this estimate.

What would change it: Final injury designations showing Henderson and Barmore active while both Seattle safeties are ruled out would push my estimate up toward 0.48; confirmation that both Patriots starters are out would push it toward 0.37.

Settlement source

+4.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: NFL home teams win roughly 57% of games, and in matchups between two evenly matched 14-3 teams home field is the dominant prior.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 11 Sept 2026, 04:06 UTC · recorded 11 Sept 2026, 04:06 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

The Patriots finished the 2025 season 14-3 and were the AFC's second seed before losing Super Bowl LX. as of 2026-02-08 · en.wikipedia.org
The Seahawks finished the 2025 season 14-3 and were the NFC's top seed en route to winning Super Bowl LX. as of 2026-02-08 · en.wikipedia.org
The Week 1 game between the Patriots and Seahawks is scheduled for Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Lumen Field in Seattle, kicking off at 8:20 PM ET (5:20 PM PT). as of 2026-09-06 · patriots.com · within 90 days of this call
The Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026 at Levi's Stadium. as of 2026-02-08 · en.wikipedia.org
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson has not practiced since injuring his right ankle on August 24, 2026, putting his Week 1 availability in doubt. as of 2026-09-06 · patspulpit.com · within 90 days of this call
Patriots starting defensive tackle Christian Barmore did not practice on September 6, 2026 due to a knee injury that began over Labor Day weekend. as of 2026-09-06 · patspulpit.com · within 90 days of this call
Seahawks starting safety Ty Okada did not participate in practice on September 6, 2026 due to a hamstring injury. as of 2026-09-06 · seahawks.com · within 90 days of this call
Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori, who is returning from ankle surgery, was listed as a limited participant in practice with his Week 1 status uncertain. as of 2026-09-06 · seahawks.com · within 90 days of this call
The Seahawks are thin at safety with only Julian Love and Nick Emmanwori as other options behind Okada. as of 2026-09-06 · seahawks.com · within 90 days of this call
This is the Patriots' first-ever game played on a Wednesday. as of 2026-09-06 · patriots.com · within 90 days of this call
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels both won Coach of the Year honors following the 2025 season. as of 2026-02-09 · patriots.com
Including the postseason, the all-time head-to-head record between the two franchises is New England 9 wins, Seattle 12 wins. as of 2026-09-06 · patriots.com · within 90 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 38.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $295,382 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0168 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.