Oklahoma vs. Michigan

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

SettledEvent date Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTCLast checked 12 Sept 2026, 15:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T15:55:28.895Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

64.5%bid 64.0% / ask 65.0%24h volume $180K · liquidity $368Kas of 12 Sept, 15:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T18:55:26.669Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

59.0%bid 58.0% / ask 60.0%24h volume $7.6M · liquidity –as of 12 Sept, 18:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView this market's series on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

Settles Sep 12, 26

In the upcoming college football game between Oklahoma and Michigan, scheduled for September 12 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oklahoma" if Oklahoma win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Settles Sep 12, 26

If Oklahoma wins the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Oklahoma vs. Michigan

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

58.0%against a market price of 68.0% at the timeNO
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:41 UTC · Brier 0.3364
- Reference class: higher-ranked team vs. lower-ranked home team. Oklahoma is No. 10, Michigan No. 16, which alone suggests Oklahoma as a modest favorite, but the game is at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, clawing back most of that edge — net, this is close to a pick'em on rankings/venue alone.
- Week 1 performance is the strongest differentiating signal: Oklahoma dominated UTEP 51-0, while Michigan — a 27.5-point favorite — needed a last-second Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan 13-12 and was badly outplayed in time of possession (40:08 to 19:52). Opponent quality differs (UTEP vs. Western Michigan are comparable weak opponents), so this contrast is meaningful signal, not just narrative.
- Michigan's underlying play was sloppy: three turnovers, nine penalties for 80 yards, and an inconsistent debut from QB Bryce Underwood (12-of-22, TD+INT, lost fumble) — concerning against a Brent Venables-coached SEC defense.
- Michigan is adjusting to a brand-new head coach, Kyle Whittingham, in his debut season after 21 years at Utah; new-staff teams often underperform early, though Whittingham is experienced, which limits how much weight to give this.
- Single-game samples are noisy: Michigan's opener could be a fluke letdown spot, and Oklahoma's shutout could flatter them against an overmatched UTEP. No injury information is available for either side, which caps confidence.
- Combining rankings, home field, and Week 1 form, I estimate Oklahoma as roughly a 2-4 point favorite, translating to about 58% win probability.
What would change it: Confirmed injury or suspension to a key Oklahoma player (e.g., starting QB), or evidence that Michigan's opener was anomalous (e.g., sharp practice reports, Oklahoma's UTEP win driven by fluky turnovers) would push this back toward 50%.
Settlement sourcet-0173

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $7,596,718 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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