Oklahoma vs. Michigan

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

SettledEvent date Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTCLast checked 12 Sept 2026, 15:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T15:55:28.895Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

64.5%bid 64.0% / ask 65.0%24h volume $180K · liquidity $368Kas of 12 Sept, 15:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T18:55:26.669Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

59.0%bid 58.0% / ask 60.0%24h volume $7.6M · liquidity –as of 12 Sept, 18:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView this market's series on Kalshi

The terms differ in 89 words.

Not yet reviewed

Each venue's terms as written. Marked: words the other side doesn’t share.

Settles Sep 12, 26

In the upcoming college football game between Oklahoma and Michigan, scheduled for September 12 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oklahoma" if Oklahoma win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Settles Sep 12, 26

If Oklahoma wins the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Oklahoma vs. Michigan

Crossbook forecast

58.0%against a market price of 68.0% at the timeNO

Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:41 UTC · Brier 0.3364

Reference class: higher-ranked team vs. lower-ranked home team. Oklahoma is No. 10, Michigan No. 16, which alone suggests Oklahoma as a modest favorite, but the game is at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, clawing back most of that edge — net, this is close to a pick'em on rankings/venue alone.
Week 1 performance is the strongest differentiating signal: Oklahoma dominated UTEP 51-0, while Michigan — a 27.5-point favorite — needed a last-second Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan 13-12 and was badly outplayed in time of possession (40:08 to 19:52). Opponent quality differs (UTEP vs. Western Michigan are comparable weak opponents), so this contrast is meaningful signal, not just narrative.
Michigan's underlying play was sloppy: three turnovers, nine penalties for 80 yards, and an inconsistent debut from QB Bryce Underwood (12-of-22, TD+INT, lost fumble) — concerning against a Brent Venables-coached SEC defense.
Michigan is adjusting to a brand-new head coach, Kyle Whittingham, in his debut season after 21 years at Utah; new-staff teams often underperform early, though Whittingham is experienced, which limits how much weight to give this.
Single-game samples are noisy: Michigan's opener could be a fluke letdown spot, and Oklahoma's shutout could flatter them against an overmatched UTEP. No injury information is available for either side, which caps confidence.
Combining rankings, home field, and Week 1 form, I estimate Oklahoma as roughly a 2-4 point favorite, translating to about 58% win probability.

What would change it: Confirmed injury or suspension to a key Oklahoma player (e.g., starting QB), or evidence that Michigan's opener was anomalous (e.g., sharp practice reports, Oklahoma's UTEP win driven by fluky turnovers) would push this back toward 50%.

Settlement source

-10.0 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In matchups between ranked Power-conference teams, the higher-ranked team wins roughly 55-60% of the time, with home-field advantage worth about 3 points (~6-8 percentage points) to the home side.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC · entered by handsettlement
REOPENEDreopened · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC · entered by hand
NOsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:36 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:36 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

Oklahoma is ranked No. 10 and Michigan is ranked No. 16 in the AP poll heading into the game. as of 2026-09-06 · espn.com · within 90 days of this call
The Oklahoma vs Michigan game is scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. as of 2026-09-07 · fox.com · within 90 days of this call
Oklahoma defeated UTEP 51-0 in its 2026 season opener. as of 2026-09-04 · soonersports.com · within 90 days of this call
Michigan defeated Western Michigan 13-12 in its season opener on September 5, 2026, on a 47-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass from Bryce Underwood to JJ Buchanan on the final play after officials restored one second to the clock. as of 2026-09-05 · espn.com · within 90 days of this call
Michigan was a 27.5-point favorite over Western Michigan in that opener and narrowly avoided an upset, with Western Michigan controlling time of possession 40:08 to 19:52. as of 2026-09-05 · detroitnews.com · within 90 days of this call
Michigan committed three turnovers and nine penalties for 80 yards in its season-opening win over Western Michigan. as of 2026-09-05 · bleacherreport.com · within 90 days of this call
In the Western Michigan game, Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood finished 12-of-22 passing for 170 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 47 yards and a touchdown but losing a fumble. as of 2026-09-05 · bleacherreport.com · within 90 days of this call
Oklahoma is coached by fifth-year head coach Brent Venables and plays in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) in 2026. as of 2026-09-06 · en.wikipedia.org · within 90 days of this call
Kyle Whittingham is Michigan's new head coach in 2026, having arrived after 21 seasons as Utah's head coach, and this was his coaching debut for the Wolverines. as of 2026-09-05 · detroitnews.com · within 90 days of this call

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $7,596,718 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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