LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

Settled, no longer listedEvent date Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTCContract settles 30 Oct 2026Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 19:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:55:27.068Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

81.5%bid 81.0% / ask 82.0%24h volume $387K · liquidity $889Kas of 29 Oct, 19:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

70.8%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 27 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC
- The base rate for a 1–2 vs 1–2 Swiss elimination BO3 is symmetric at 50%; any adjustment must come from team-strength evidence, not the match structure.
- Karmine Corp's 2026 record of 97–54 (64% win rate) versus CTBC Flying Oyster's 41–48 (46%) is genuine signal of a stronger season, though records are compiled against different regional opposition.
- Region strength is signal: KC competes in the LEC (a top major region) while CFO plays in the LCP (a weaker亚太 league), so KC's superior record was earned against tougher average opposition, compounding the record gap.
- Both teams' latest Swiss losses came against elite opposition (BLG and T1 respectively) by identical one-game margins, so recent form does not differentiate them and I treat it as neutral.
- No injury, suspension, or roster-availability information could be established, and both listed rosters are confirmed main rosters, so I assume both teams field standard lineups; this uncertainty caps my adjustment below a stronger favorite line.
- BO3 variance and the small, cross-region record comparison argue for moderation rather than pushing to 0.70+ despite KC's edges.
What would change it: Credible pre-match news of a KC starter being unavailable, or CFO scrim/form leaks showing a strong edge, would move this toward 0.50 or below.
t-0279

Polymarket prices this at 81.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $387,220 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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