LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

Settled, no longer listedEvent date Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTCContract settles 30 Oct 2026Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 19:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:55:27.068Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

81.5%bid 81.0% / ask 82.0%24h volume $387K · liquidity $889Kas of 29 Oct, 19:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

70.8%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeOpen

Logged 27 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

The base rate for a 1–2 vs 1–2 Swiss elimination BO3 is symmetric at 50%; any adjustment must come from team-strength evidence, not the match structure.
Karmine Corp's 2026 record of 97–54 (64% win rate) versus CTBC Flying Oyster's 41–48 (46%) is genuine signal of a stronger season, though records are compiled against different regional opposition.
Region strength is signal: KC competes in the LEC (a top major region) while CFO plays in the LCP (a weaker亚太 league), so KC's superior record was earned against tougher average opposition, compounding the record gap.
Both teams' latest Swiss losses came against elite opposition (BLG and T1 respectively) by identical one-game margins, so recent form does not differentiate them and I treat it as neutral.
No injury, suspension, or roster-availability information could be established, and both listed rosters are confirmed main rosters, so I assume both teams field standard lineups; this uncertainty caps my adjustment below a stronger favorite line.
BO3 variance and the small, cross-region record comparison argue for moderation rather than pushing to 0.70+ despite KC's edges.

What would change it: Credible pre-match news of a KC starter being unavailable, or CFO scrim/form leaks showing a strong edge, would move this toward 0.50 or below.

-8.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Across the 2024 and 2025 Worlds Swiss Round 4 1–2 elimination BO3 series, each side won 3 of 6 series (50%) — by construction a coin-flip class.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 62.0%, without sight of the price; published at 70.8%, the market’s 79.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

What this call was reading

Across the 2024 and 2025 Worlds Swiss Round 4 1–2 elimination best-of-three series, teams won 3 of 6 series (50%). [web:21][web:18] as of 2025-10-24 · liquipedia.net
Karmine Corp entered the Worlds Swiss Round 4 match with a 1–2 Swiss-stage record. [web:12] as of 2026-10-26 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
CTBC Flying Oyster entered the Worlds Swiss Round 4 match with a 1–2 Swiss-stage record. [web:12] as of 2026-10-26 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp had a 2026 competitive game record of 97 wins and 54 losses through its latest listed match on October 26. [web:39] as of 2026-10-26 · outdrafted.lol · within 14 days of this call
CTBC Flying Oyster had a 2026 competitive game record of 41 wins and 48 losses through its latest listed match on October 26. [web:40] as of 2026-10-26 · outdrafted.lol · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp is an EMEA team competing in the LEC, with its main roster in the league’s top division. [web:69][web:76] as of 2026-10-27 · karminecorp.fr · within 14 days of this call
CTBC Flying Oyster is a Taiwan-based APAC team competing in the LCP with its main roster, distinct from its academy team. [web:75][web:77][web:82] as of 2026-10-27 · lol.fandom.com · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp’s latest result was a 0–1 loss to Bilibili Gaming on October 26, a one-game margin. [web:12] as of 2026-10-26 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
CTBC Flying Oyster’s latest result was a 0–1 loss to T1 on October 26, a one-game margin. [web:12] as of 2026-10-26 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp’s listed 2026 main roster is Canna, Yike, kyeahoo, Caliste and Busio. [web:54] as of 2026-10-27 · mid.gg · within 14 days of this call
CTBC Flying Oyster’s listed 2026 main roster is Rest, Shad0w, POUT, Doggo and Kino. [web:55] as of 2026-10-27 · mid.gg · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 81.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $387,220 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0279 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.