LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTCContract settles 12 Oct 2026Last checked 12 Oct 2026, 10:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-12T10:25:26.893Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

68.5%bid 68.0% / ask 69.0%24h volume $464K · liquidity $208Kas of 12 Oct, 10:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

61.8%against a market price of 67.5% at the timeYES
Logged 9 Oct 2026, 13:02 UTC · Brier 0.1463
- JD Gaming is playing with two substitutes (Angel mid, Xiaofang jungle) because starters JunJia and HongQ are unavailable due to Asian Games conflicts — a material, verified roster weakening that is genuine signal, not narrative.
- The weakened JDG went only 2-2 in the Swiss stage, consistent with the substitutes hurting them, though they did win their most recent match 2-1 over Natus Vincere.
- BNK FEARX was a below-average LCK team domestically (10-16, and 1-2 in playoff BO5s), which tempers how far the JDG roster news should move the estimate — this is a weak favorite at best.
- BNK's recent form is adequate (2-1 over LGD on Oct 4) and no lineup issues are known for them, so the matchup tilts modestly their way against a short-handed opponent.
- Close date is 3 days out with the match scheduled as announced, so postponement/cancellation (50-50 resolution) risk is minimal and needs no material adjustment.
What would change it: Confirmation before the match that JunJia and HongQ are in fact playing for JD Gaming, or a BNK FEARX lineup/availability problem, would push the estimate back to or below 0.50.
Settlement sourcet-0232

Polymarket prices this at 68.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $463,635 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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