LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs

Logged 9 Oct 2026, 13:02 UTC · Brier 0.1463

• JD Gaming is playing with two substitutes (Angel mid, Xiaofang jungle) because starters JunJia and HongQ are unavailable due to Asian Games conflicts — a material, verified roster weakening that is genuine signal, not narrative.
• The weakened JDG went only 2-2 in the Swiss stage, consistent with the substitutes hurting them, though they did win their most recent match 2-1 over Natus Vincere.
• BNK FEARX was a below-average LCK team domestically (10-16, and 1-2 in playoff BO5s), which tempers how far the JDG roster news should move the estimate — this is a weak favorite at best.
• BNK's recent form is adequate (2-1 over LGD on Oct 4) and no lineup issues are known for them, so the matchup tilts modestly their way against a short-handed opponent.
• Close date is 3 days out with the match scheduled as announced, so postponement/cancellation (50-50 resolution) risk is minimal and needs no material adjustment.

What would change it: Confirmation before the match that JunJia and HongQ are in fact playing for JD Gaming, or a BNK FEARX lineup/availability problem, would push the estimate back to or below 0.50.

-5.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In cross-regional LCK-vs-LPL BO5s between comparably ranked teams, each side wins roughly half the time; neither league has shown a decisive edge at the mid-table level, so 0.50 is the stated class rate from general knowledge of the class (no retrieved fact provides a computed rate).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 56.0%, without sight of the price; published at 61.8%, the market’s 67.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f8) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.