Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 7 Sept 2026Last checked 6 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-06T22:00:32.278Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

95.5%bid 92.0% / ask 99.0%24h volume $12K · liquidity $684as of 6 Sept, 22:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

63.0%against a market price of 68.5% at the timeYES
Logged 3 Sept 2026, 03:06 UTC · Brier 0.1369
- Time budget is favorable: ~4 days remain for three objectives, and only one participant needs to be live at a time, which mitigates sleep/fatigue constraints for a duo.
- Warzone and Fortnite wins are partly RNG/skill dependent and can take many attempts; Minecraft completion is grindy and vulnerable to run-voiding, which per the rules resets an objective — these are real signal against YES, not narrative.
- The market at 68.5% embeds knowledge I lack (e.g., how many objectives are already complete); with no contrary evidence, my independent 63% sits slightly below market but within plausible noise, so the divergence likely reflects live-stream progress information rather than mispricing.
What would change it: Confirmation that two of the three objectives are already completed would push this sharply higher; conversely, zero completions with under 4 days left would push it toward ~40%.
Settlement sourcet-0161

Polymarket prices this at 95.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $12,223 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.