Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 63.0%against a market price of 68.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 3 Sept 2026, 03:06 UTC
- Time budget is favorable: ~4 days remain for three objectives, and only one participant needs to be live at a time, which mitigates sleep/fatigue constraints for a duo.
- Warzone and Fortnite wins are partly RNG/skill dependent and can take many attempts; Minecraft completion is grindy and vulnerable to run-voiding, which per the rules resets an objective — these are real signal against YES, not narrative.
- The market at 68.5% embeds knowledge I lack (e.g., how many objectives are already complete); with no contrary evidence, my independent 63% sits slightly below market but within plausible noise, so the divergence likely reflects live-stream progress information rather than mispricing.
What would change it: Confirmation that two of the three objectives are already completed would push this sharply higher; conversely, zero completions with under 4 days left would push it toward ~40%.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 96%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $12,223 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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