Georgia vs. Alabama: O/U 51.5

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTCLast checked 10 Oct 2026, 23:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-10T23:25:27.266Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

51.5%bid 51.0% / ask 52.0%24h volume $74K · liquidity $312Kas of 10 Oct, 23:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

50.2%against a market price of 46.5% at the timeNO
Logged 8 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC · Brier 0.2525
- The base rate for totals in the 49.5-51.5 band is a near coin flip at 52.2% over, and a market-set line of 51.5 already embeds most public information, so any adjustment should be small.
- Both teams enter 5-0 with strong recent offensive outputs (Georgia 38 vs Vanderbilt, Alabama 56 vs Mississippi State), supporting the over modestly.
- Alabama has five defensive players ruled out (Beaman, Jones, Umeozulu, Sherman, Hall) plus a questionable DB, which weakens the defense Georgia faces and tilts toward the over.
- Georgia is missing a running back, two wide receivers (one out, one questionable), and an offensive lineman, which dampens its scoring ceiling and partially offsets the over tilt from Alabama's defensive absences.
- The injuries cut in opposite directions rather than compounding on one side, so the net inside-view adjustment from the 52.2% base is only about two points up.
What would change it: A confirmed report that Alabama's defensive absences are being covered by capable starters while Georgia's offensive line and receiving depth remain depleted, or adverse weather in Tuscaloosa on game day, would push this back toward or below the base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0230

Polymarket prices this at 51.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $74,131 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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