Georgia vs. Alabama: O/U 51.5

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTCLast checked 10 Oct 2026, 23:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-10T23:25:27.266Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

51.5%bid 51.0% / ask 52.0%24h volume $74K · liquidity $312Kas of 10 Oct, 23:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

50.2%against a market price of 46.5% at the timeNO

Logged 8 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC · Brier 0.2525

The base rate for totals in the 49.5-51.5 band is a near coin flip at 52.2% over, and a market-set line of 51.5 already embeds most public information, so any adjustment should be small.
Both teams enter 5-0 with strong recent offensive outputs (Georgia 38 vs Vanderbilt, Alabama 56 vs Mississippi State), supporting the over modestly.
Alabama has five defensive players ruled out (Beaman, Jones, Umeozulu, Sherman, Hall) plus a questionable DB, which weakens the defense Georgia faces and tilts toward the over.
Georgia is missing a running back, two wide receivers (one out, one questionable), and an offensive lineman, which dampens its scoring ceiling and partially offsets the over tilt from Alabama's defensive absences.
The injuries cut in opposite directions rather than compounding on one side, so the net inside-view adjustment from the 52.2% base is only about two points up.

What would change it: A confirmed report that Alabama's defensive absences are being covered by capable starters while Georgia's offensive line and receiving depth remain depleted, or adverse weather in Tuscaloosa on game day, would push this back toward or below the base rate.

Settlement source

+3.7 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Among 508 games with totals from 49.5 to 51.5 since 2021, 52.2% went over the total.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 54.0%, without sight of the price; published at 50.2%, the market’s 46.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 11 Oct 2026, 03:33 UTC · recorded 11 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Among 508 college football games with totals from 49.5 to 51.5 points since the start of the 2021 season through October 4, 2026, 265 went over the total, a 52.2% rate. [web:62] as of 2026-10-04 · teamrankings.com · within 14 days of this call
Georgia's season record was 5-0 overall after its October 3 game. [web:17] as of 2026-10-03 · georgiadogs.com · within 14 days of this call
Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 on October 3, a 24-point margin. [web:17] as of 2026-10-03 · georgiadogs.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama's season record was 5-0 overall after its October 3 game. [web:21] as of 2026-10-03 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama beat Mississippi State 56-23 on October 3, a 33-point margin. [web:21] as of 2026-10-03 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama defensive lineman Jeremiah Beaman was listed out for the Georgia game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama linebacker Cayden Jones was listed out for the Georgia game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama outside linebacker Desmond Umeozulu was listed out for the Georgia game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama defensive back Nick Sherman was listed out for the Georgia game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama linebacker Justin Hall was listed out for the Georgia game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Alabama defensive back Jordan Edmonds was listed questionable for the Georgia game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Georgia running back Chauncey Bowens was listed out for the Alabama game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Georgia wide receiver Thomas Blackshear was listed out for the Alabama game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Georgia offensive lineman Marcus Harrison was listed out for the Alabama game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call
Georgia wide receiver Isiah Canion was listed questionable for the Alabama game. [web:87] as of 2026-10-07 · 247sports.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 51.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $74,131 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0230 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.