Falcons vs. Steelers
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T05:05:28.262Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
29.5%bid 29.0% / ask 30.0%24h volume $41K · liquidity $184Kas of 12 Sept, 05:05 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 42.0%against a market price of 31.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 11 Sept 2026, 04:13 UTC
- The only verifiable retrieved fact is that both teams entered at 0-0 [f1], confirming this is a Week 1 game with no in-season performance data to differentiate the teams; this pushes the estimate toward the generic home/away base rate rather than any team-specific edge.
- Unverified retrieval notes suggest the game is in Pittsburgh and that Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. was limited in practice while Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. practiced fully; if accurate, both are small signals favoring Atlanta, but since the sources were not actually retrieved, I weight them only minimally and cannot treat them as established.
- With no usable injury reports, lines, or prior-season adjusted ratings in the retrieved facts, there is no strong inside-view evidence to move far from the base rate; a road team in a Week 1 game with no major known disparities merits roughly a 42% win probability rather than the ~44% long-run road rate because Pittsburgh has historically been a strong home environment.
- Time decay is not material here: the game is 3 days away and the market only resolves 50-50 on cancellation/tie, so the estimate is purely about game outcome.
What would change it: Confirmation of a significant injury or lineup change (e.g., Penix or a key Falcons starter ruled out, or Porter and other Steelers starters cleared) in the final injury report would most move my estimate.
- 42.0%against a market price of 31.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 11 Sept 2026, 04:12 UTC
- With no confirmed line, rosters, or season context in the retrieved facts, the home-field base rate is the dominant input: home NFL teams win ~57%, implying ~43% for the visiting Falcons (assumed YES side of this market).
- Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was limited Wednesday with a back issue, a small negative signal for Pittsburgh's pass defense that nudges slightly toward Atlanta.
- Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. practiced fully, so Atlanta's starting quarterback appears healthy; however, five Falcons (including DE Za'Darius Smith) were limited, a roughly offsetting injury signal to the Steelers' item above.
- The retrieved facts do not include any market price, point spread, or Week 1 form information, so I cannot condition on sharper signals; season-openers also carry elevated variance, which argues for staying close to the base rate rather than extremes.
What would change it: Release of a consensus betting line or late-week injury news (e.g., Joey Porter Jr. or a Falcons starter ruled out) that moves the expected margin by more than ~3 points.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 29.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $40,986 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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