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Falcons vs. Steelers

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 13 Sept 2026, 16:55 UTC
PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-13T16:55:28.887Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

27.5%bid 27.0% / ask 28.0%24h volume $101K · liquidity $1.1Mas of 13 Sept, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

42.0%against a market price of 31.5% at the timeNO

Logged 11 Sept 2026, 04:12 UTC · Brier 0.1764

  • With no confirmed line, rosters, or season context in the retrieved facts, the home-field base rate is the dominant input: home NFL teams win ~57%, implying ~43% for the visiting Falcons (assumed YES side of this market).
  • Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was limited Wednesday with a back issue, a small negative signal for Pittsburgh's pass defense that nudges slightly toward Atlanta.
  • Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. practiced fully, so Atlanta's starting quarterback appears healthy; however, five Falcons (including DE Za'Darius Smith) were limited, a roughly offsetting injury signal to the Steelers' item above.
  • The retrieved facts do not include any market price, point spread, or Week 1 form information, so I cannot condition on sharper signals; season-openers also carry elevated variance, which argues for staying close to the base rate rather than extremes.

What would change it: Release of a consensus betting line or late-week injury news (e.g., Joey Porter Jr. or a Falcons starter ruled out) that moves the expected margin by more than ~3 points.

Settlement source

+10.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: NFL road teams win roughly 42-43% of the time historically, and this game is in Pittsburgh, so the outside view gives the road Falcons about 43%.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

  1. VOIDsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:30 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:30 UTC · entered by handsettlement

  2. NOsettled 13 Sept 2026, 20:37 UTC · recorded 5 Oct 2026, 01:23 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

    Corrected against Polymarket's settlement. Recorded VOID on 15 Sept 2026; Polymarket settled NO on 13 Sept 2026. VOID means the venue refunded or cancelled the market, which it did not.

Revisions

This market has been called 2times. Every one is kept and shown; the earliest scorable call is the only one that enters the record's score.

  1. t-019042.0%against 31.5%11 Sept 2026, 04:12 UTCscored· this page
  2. t-019142.0%against 31.5%11 Sept 2026, 04:13 UTC

Context

Polymarket prices this at 27.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $101,152 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0190 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.