Eagles vs. Jaguars

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTCLast checked 11 Oct 2026, 13:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-11T13:25:29.326Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

23.5%bid 23.0% / ask 24.0%24h volume $875K · liquidity $2.1Mas of 11 Oct, 13:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

34.8%against a market price of 26.5% at the timeNO
Logged 6 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.1208
- The game is at a neutral London venue, so neither team gets the standard ~54.8% home-field edge that anchors most NFL pricing; the starting point is a coin flip.
- Jacksonville holds the better record (3-1 vs. 2-2) and the better most recent result (a 22-17 win vs. a 24-20 loss), a modest signal of current team strength worth a few points.
- The decisive signal is Philadelphia's injury cluster: Barkley (hamstring, unresolved), Smith (questionable at best), Lane Johnson (no timeline), Bigsby (IR), Baun (concussion protocol), and Mitchell (knee, unclear) hit the Eagles' offensive core and defense simultaneously — signal, not narrative, because these are named starters with unresolved status five days out.
- Jacksonville's injuries (Braswell, Brown, Murray, Ransaw questionable; Green on IR) are concentrated in the secondary but are shallower and less star-concentrated than Philadelphia's, so the net injury adjustment favors the Jaguars.
- NFL single-game outcomes are high-variance and the Eagles retain an experienced core, so the adjustment stays moderate rather than treating Jacksonville as a heavy favorite; roughly a 7-point shift from even reflects record, form, and the injury gap.
What would change it: The final injury report showing Barkley, Smith, and Lane Johnson all active and starting for Philadelphia while Jacksonville's questionable defensive backs sit would push this back toward or above 50%.
Settlement sourcet-0225

Polymarket prices this at 23.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $875,363 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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