Eagles vs. Jaguars

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTCLast checked 11 Oct 2026, 13:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-11T13:25:29.326Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

23.5%bid 23.0% / ask 24.0%24h volume $875K · liquidity $2.1Mas of 11 Oct, 13:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

34.8%against a market price of 26.5% at the timeNO

Logged 6 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.1208

The game is at a neutral London venue, so neither team gets the standard ~54.8% home-field edge that anchors most NFL pricing; the starting point is a coin flip.
Jacksonville holds the better record (3-1 vs. 2-2) and the better most recent result (a 22-17 win vs. a 24-20 loss), a modest signal of current team strength worth a few points.
The decisive signal is Philadelphia's injury cluster: Barkley (hamstring, unresolved), Smith (questionable at best), Lane Johnson (no timeline), Bigsby (IR), Baun (concussion protocol), and Mitchell (knee, unclear) hit the Eagles' offensive core and defense simultaneously — signal, not narrative, because these are named starters with unresolved status five days out.
Jacksonville's injuries (Braswell, Brown, Murray, Ransaw questionable; Green on IR) are concentrated in the secondary but are shallower and less star-concentrated than Philadelphia's, so the net injury adjustment favors the Jaguars.
NFL single-game outcomes are high-variance and the Eagles retain an experienced core, so the adjustment stays moderate rather than treating Jacksonville as a heavy favorite; roughly a 7-point shift from even reflects record, form, and the injury gap.

What would change it: The final injury report showing Barkley, Smith, and Lane Johnson all active and starting for Philadelphia while Jacksonville's questionable defensive backs sit would push this back toward or above 50%.

Settlement source

+8.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Absent a venue edge, either side of an NFL matchup wins about half the time; the only venue rate in the facts is a 54.8% home win rate for 2017-2025, which does not apply since this game is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, so a 50% neutral-site rate is the base.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 43.0%, without sight of the price; published at 34.8%, the market’s 26.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f9, f10, f11, f12, f13, f14) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 11 Oct 2026, 17:32 UTC · recorded 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

NFL home teams won 54.8% of games from 2017 through 2025, with ties counted as half a win. as of 2025-12-31 · nflanalytic.com
Philadelphia is scheduled to play Jacksonville on October 11, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. as of 2026-10-06 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Philadelphia's 2026 regular-season record is 2-2. as of 2026-10-06 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
Jacksonville's 2026 regular-season record is 3-1. as of 2026-10-06 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
Philadelphia's most recent game was a 24-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on October 4, a four-point margin. as of 2026-10-04 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Jacksonville's most recent game was a 22-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on October 4, a five-point margin. as of 2026-10-04 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Saquon Barkley suffered a hamstring injury against the Rams on October 4 and his availability for the Jaguars game remained unresolved on October 5. as of 2026-10-05 · inquirer.com · within 14 days of this call
DeVonta Smith missed the Rams game with a hamstring injury and was reported as questionable at best for Week 5. as of 2026-10-05 · inquirer.com · within 14 days of this call
Lane Johnson was a late scratch against the Rams for a personal matter and had no stated return timeline as of October 5. as of 2026-10-05 · inquirer.com · within 14 days of this call
Tank Bigsby had a core muscle injury requiring surgery and was headed to injured reserve. as of 2026-10-05 · inquirer.com · within 14 days of this call
Zack Baun missed the Rams game while in the concussion protocol, and his return timing was unclear as of October 5. as of 2026-10-05 · inquirer.com · within 14 days of this call
Quinyon Mitchell left the Rams game with a knee injury and his Week 5 status remained unclear pending testing. as of 2026-10-05 · inquirer.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Jaguars cornerback Christian Braswell as questionable with a knee injury for the October 11 game. as of 2026-10-05 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Jaguars cornerback Montaric Brown as questionable with a hamstring injury for the October 11 game. as of 2026-10-05 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Jaguars safety Eric Murray as questionable with a concussion for the October 11 game. as of 2026-10-05 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Jaguars safety Caleb Ransaw as questionable with a knee injury for the October 11 game. as of 2026-10-05 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Jaguars defensive end B.J. Green II on injured reserve with an elbow injury and an estimated return date of October 18. as of 2026-10-05 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 23.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $875,363 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0225 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.