Colorado State vs. Texas State: O/U 65.5

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCLast checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-15T23:55:27.936Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

60.5%bid 60.0% / ask 61.0%24h volume $116 · liquidity $50Kas of 15 Oct, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

47.8%against a market price of 53.5% at the timeYES
Logged 11 Oct 2026, 21:02 UTC · Brier 0.2730
- The computed outside view from a cited source is directly on point: totals in the 65.5-66.5 band have gone over only 45.3% of the time since 2003, so the line at 65.5 starts slightly shaded to the under.
- Colorado State's starting quarterback Hauss Hejny is dealing with a hamstring injury with his status uncertain as of October 7; a diminished or absent starting QB modestly suppresses expected scoring, pushing toward the under.
- Recent totals evidence is mixed and weak: CSU's last game totaled 82 points (over) while Texas State's totaled 60 (under), and single-game samples are narrative rather than signal.
- Both teams are 2-3 FBS Pac-12 programs, so neither profile suggests an extreme offensive or defensive environment that would justify a large move off the base rate.
What would change it: Confirmation before kickoff that Hejny is fully healthy (or that Texas State is missing key defensive starters) would push my estimate back toward or above the 45.3% base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0240

Polymarket prices this at 60.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $116 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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