Colorado State vs. Texas State: O/U 65.5

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCLast checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-15T23:55:27.936Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

60.5%bid 60.0% / ask 61.0%24h volume $116 · liquidity $50Kas of 15 Oct, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

47.8%against a market price of 53.5% at the timeYES

Logged 11 Oct 2026, 21:02 UTC · Brier 0.2730

The computed outside view from a cited source is directly on point: totals in the 65.5-66.5 band have gone over only 45.3% of the time since 2003, so the line at 65.5 starts slightly shaded to the under.
Colorado State's starting quarterback Hauss Hejny is dealing with a hamstring injury with his status uncertain as of October 7; a diminished or absent starting QB modestly suppresses expected scoring, pushing toward the under.
Recent totals evidence is mixed and weak: CSU's last game totaled 82 points (over) while Texas State's totaled 60 (under), and single-game samples are narrative rather than signal.
Both teams are 2-3 FBS Pac-12 programs, so neither profile suggests an extreme offensive or defensive environment that would justify a large move off the base rate.

What would change it: Confirmation before kickoff that Hejny is fully healthy (or that Texas State is missing key defensive starters) would push my estimate back toward or above the 45.3% base rate.

Settlement source

-5.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Across 488 games with closing totals from 65.5 through 66.5 since 2003, 45.3% went over (excluding pushes).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 42.0%, without sight of the price; published at 47.8%, the market’s 53.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 16 Oct 2026, 02:04 UTC · recorded 16 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Across 488 college football games with closing totals from 65.5 through 66.5 since 2003, 220 went over, 266 went under, and 2 pushed, for a 45.3% over rate excluding pushes. [web:47] as of 2026-10-10 · betiq.teamrankings.com · within 14 days of this call
Colorado State quarterback Hauss Hejny was working on the side with a hamstring injury on October 7, and coach Jim Mora said his status would be revisited early the following week. [web:18] as of 2026-10-07 · rotowire.com · within 14 days of this call
Colorado State's most recent result was a 56-26 loss to Oregon State on October 3, a 30-point margin. [web:12] as of 2026-10-03 · csurams.com · within 14 days of this call
Texas State's most recent result was a 31-29 loss to San Diego State on October 3, a two-point margin. [web:16] as of 2026-10-03 · txst.com · within 14 days of this call
Colorado State's football program competes at the FBS level in the Pac-12 Conference. [web:38][web:43] as of 2026-07-01 · pac-12.com
Texas State's football program competes at the FBS level in the Pac-12 Conference. [web:38][web:43] as of 2026-07-01 · pac-12.com
Colorado State's season record through October 3 was 2-3. [web:12] as of 2026-10-03 · csurams.com · within 14 days of this call
Texas State's season record through October 3 was 2-3. [web:16] as of 2026-10-03 · txst.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 60.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $116 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0240 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.