Chiefs vs. Seahawks

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 26 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-26T00:15:28.607Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

41.5%bid 41.0% / ask 42.0%24h volume $653K · liquidity $2.3Mas of 26 Oct, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

53.8%against a market price of 44.5% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Brier 0.2889
- The Chiefs are an undefeated 5-0 with a 16-point win over the Chargers last week, while Seattle sits at 3-3 and lost its most recent game — a clear quality gap that justifies moving well above the away-team base rate.
- Kansas City is on the road at Lumen Field, which is why the estimate starts from the ~46% away-team class rather than from a neutral or home baseline.
- Chiefs injuries temper the upgrade: Rashee Rice (hamstring) and both tackles Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore are questionable, which could hurt protection and receiving depth.
- Seattle's injury list is lighter in impact — a backup tight end out and two linebackers questionable — but it slightly offsets the Chiefs' health concerns.
- Final inactive lists are unknown, so the injury adjustment carries uncertainty; single-game NFL outcomes between a strong favorite and a.500 home team land for the favorite roughly 60-65% of the time, anchoring the estimate.
What would change it: If Rashee Rice and either starting tackle are ruled out on Friday's injury report, or if Kansas City announces other key absences, my estimate would drop toward 0.55.
Settlement sourcet-0261

Polymarket prices this at 41.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $653,203 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.