Chiefs vs. Seahawks

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTCLast checked 26 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-26T00:15:28.607Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

41.5%bid 41.0% / ask 42.0%24h volume $653K · liquidity $2.3Mas of 26 Oct, 00:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

53.8%against a market price of 44.5% at the timeNO

Logged 20 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Brier 0.2889

The Chiefs are an undefeated 5-0 with a 16-point win over the Chargers last week, while Seattle sits at 3-3 and lost its most recent game — a clear quality gap that justifies moving well above the away-team base rate.
Kansas City is on the road at Lumen Field, which is why the estimate starts from the ~46% away-team class rather than from a neutral or home baseline.
Chiefs injuries temper the upgrade: Rashee Rice (hamstring) and both tackles Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore are questionable, which could hurt protection and receiving depth.
Seattle's injury list is lighter in impact — a backup tight end out and two linebackers questionable — but it slightly offsets the Chiefs' health concerns.
Final inactive lists are unknown, so the injury adjustment carries uncertainty; single-game NFL outcomes between a strong favorite and a.500 home team land for the favorite roughly 60-65% of the time, anchoring the estimate.

What would change it: If Rashee Rice and either starting tackle are ruled out on Friday's injury report, or if Kansas City announces other key absences, my estimate would drop toward 0.55.

Settlement source

+9.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: NFL home teams won 53.8% of games in the 2025 season (142-122-1), implying away teams win about 46.2% — the baseline for a visiting side like Kansas City.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 63.0%, without sight of the price; published at 53.8%, the market’s 44.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 26 Oct 2026, 03:32 UTC · recorded 26 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

The Chiefs’ 2026 season record was 5-0 as of October 18. [web:36] as of 2026-10-18 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
The Chiefs defeated the Chargers 22-6 on October 18, a 16-point margin. [web:36] as of 2026-10-18 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
The Seahawks’ 2026 season record was 3-3 as of October 20. [web:3] as of 2026-10-20 · seahawks.com · within 14 days of this call
The Seahawks lost to the Broncos 17-14 in overtime on October 15, a 3-point margin. [web:32] as of 2026-10-15 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
NFL home teams went 142-122-1 in the 2025 season, a 53.8% win rate. [web:63] as of 2025-12-31 · vertizesports.com
The Chiefs are scheduled to play the Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle on October 25, 2026, at 8:20 p.m. ET. [web:5][web:2] as of 2026-10-20 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice as questionable with a hamstring injury as of October 20. [web:85] as of 2026-10-20 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Chiefs offensive tackle Josh Simmons as questionable with a back injury as of October 20. [web:85] as of 2026-10-20 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Chiefs offensive tackle Jaylon Moore as questionable with a concussion as of October 20. [web:85] as of 2026-10-20 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Seahawks tight end Elijah Arroyo as out with a shoulder injury as of October 20. [web:85] as of 2026-10-20 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Seahawks linebackers Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas as questionable as of October 20. [web:85] as of 2026-10-20 · espn.com.au · within 14 days of this call
The official Chiefs Week 7 injury report had not yet provided game-status designations in the retrieved report. [web:72] as of 2026-10-18 · chiefs.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 41.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $653,203 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0261 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.