Bills vs. Rams

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTCLast checked 13 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-13T00:10:29.578Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

38.5%bid 38.0% / ask 39.0%24h volume $330K · liquidity $3.2Mas of 13 Oct, 00:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

44.8%against a market price of 38.5% at the timeYES
Logged 8 Oct 2026, 13:04 UTC · Brier 0.3053
- Base rate favors the home Rams: home teams win 54.8% of NFL games (2017–2025), putting the Bills' road-team prior at 45.2%.
- Records favor Buffalo: the Bills are 3–1 versus the Rams' 2–2, and the Bills' only loss was by three points to New England, suggesting a modestly stronger team entering this game — this is the main signal pulling the estimate above the road-team base rate.
- Injury lists are heavy on both sides and roughly offsetting: the Bills have five players questionable including DT Ed Oliver and WR D.J. Moore, while the Rams have Aaron Donald (back) and Jaylen Watson (shoulder) in doubt plus Terrance Ferguson on IR; neither side shows a decisive health edge.
- With comparable-quality teams, a road game, and offsetting injuries, this profiles as a near coin-flip; the Bills' slightly better form nudges them just above 50% but the home-field pull keeps it well short of a clear favorite.
What would change it: Confirmed absence of Aaron Donald for the Rams or full clearance of Ed Oliver and D.J. Moore for the Bills would shift the estimate meaningfully toward Buffalo; conversely, multiple Bills questionables being ruled out would shift it toward the Rams.
Settlement sourcet-0231

Polymarket prices this at 38.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $330,270 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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