Bills vs. Rams

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTCLast checked 13 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-13T00:10:29.578Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

38.5%bid 38.0% / ask 39.0%24h volume $330K · liquidity $3.2Mas of 13 Oct, 00:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

44.8%against a market price of 38.5% at the timeYES

Logged 8 Oct 2026, 13:04 UTC · Brier 0.3053

Base rate favors the home Rams: home teams win 54.8% of NFL games (2017–2025), putting the Bills' road-team prior at 45.2%.
Records favor Buffalo: the Bills are 3–1 versus the Rams' 2–2, and the Bills' only loss was by three points to New England, suggesting a modestly stronger team entering this game — this is the main signal pulling the estimate above the road-team base rate.
Injury lists are heavy on both sides and roughly offsetting: the Bills have five players questionable including DT Ed Oliver and WR D.J. Moore, while the Rams have Aaron Donald (back) and Jaylen Watson (shoulder) in doubt plus Terrance Ferguson on IR; neither side shows a decisive health edge.
With comparable-quality teams, a road game, and offsetting injuries, this profiles as a near coin-flip; the Bills' slightly better form nudges them just above 50% but the home-field pull keeps it well short of a clear favorite.

What would change it: Confirmed absence of Aaron Donald for the Rams or full clearance of Ed Oliver and D.J. Moore for the Bills would shift the estimate meaningfully toward Buffalo; conversely, multiple Bills questionables being ruled out would shift it toward the Rams.

Settlement source

+6.3 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: NFL home teams won 54.8% of games over 2017–2025, so the road team's (Bills') base rate is 45.2%, with no spread or total line computed for this matchup.

Chosen by hand.

Formed blind at 51.0%, without sight of the price; published at 44.8%, the market’s 38.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 13 Oct 2026, 04:16 UTC · recorded 13 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

NFL home teams won 54.8% of games over the 2017–2025 seasons. [web:18] as of 2025-12-31 · nflanalytic.com
The Bills are scheduled to play the Rams on October 12, 2026, at 8:15 p.m. EDT at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. [web:5] as of 2026-05-14 · buffalobills.com
The Bills’ regular-season record was 3–1. [web:15] as of 2026-10-04 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Bills lost to the New England Patriots 26–29 on October 4, a three-point margin. [web:42] as of 2026-10-04 · buffalobills.com · within 14 days of this call
The Rams’ regular-season record was 2–2. [web:12] as of 2026-10-04 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Rams beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24–20 on October 4, a four-point margin. [web:39] as of 2026-10-04 · therams.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Bills defensive tackle T.J. Sanders as questionable with an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Bills cornerback Christian Benford as questionable with a toe injury and an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Bills wide receiver D.J. Moore as questionable with a shoulder injury and an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Bills cornerback Dee Alford as questionable with an ankle injury and an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver as questionable with a knee injury and an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Rams head coach Sean McVay said he hoped cornerback Jaylen Watson would play against the Bills while Watson was dealing with a shoulder injury. [web:57] as of 2026-10-05 · therams.com · within 14 days of this call
Rams head coach Sean McVay said he hoped defensive tackle Aaron Donald would play against the Bills while Donald was dealing with a back injury. [web:57] as of 2026-10-05 · therams.com · within 14 days of this call
Rams tight end Terrance Ferguson was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury. [web:57] as of 2026-10-05 · therams.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Rams tight end Colby Parkinson as questionable with a shoulder injury and an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
ESPN listed Rams wide receiver Konata Mumpfield as questionable with a shoulder injury and an estimated return date of October 12. [web:43] as of 2026-10-07 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 38.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $330,270 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0231 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.