Spread: Washington (-3.5)
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-14T22:25:26.883Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
44.5%bid 44.0% / ask 45.0%24h volume $20K · liquidity $148Kas of 14 Nov, 22:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 12 Nov 2026, 16:02 UTC
- The line class matches the retrieved base rate almost exactly: Washington is a road favorite of 3.5 points in a Big Ten game, and that class has covered at 63.4% since 2021.
- Washington is the better team by record (5-4 vs 3-6, and 2-4 vs 1-5 in conference), consistent with why they are favored on the road; this supports but does not add much beyond the base rate.
- Signal against Washington: starting QB Demond Williams Jr. is questionable, plus two other defensive contributors questionable and a running back doubtful — quarterback uncertainty is the single largest downward adjustment.
- Signal for Washington: Michigan State's availability report is worse in volume — 10 players out including defensive starters, plus a doubtful running back and questionable corners — which partially offsets the Washington QB concern.
- Recent form is ambiguous narrative: Washington lost a tight game to Penn State while MSU is coming off an emotional rivalry win over Michigan, which can precede a letdown; treating this as weak signal only.
- Netting a modest downgrade for the QB-questionable risk against the heavier MSU injury toll moves the estimate slightly below the 63.4% base rate to about 60%.
What would change it: Confirmation before kickoff that Demond Williams Jr. will not play (or that Michigan State's questionable defenders are all cleared) would move this estimate several points down (or up).
+5.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Big Ten road favorites of four points or less went 26-15 ATS (63.4%) in conference play since 2021; Washington is a 3.5-point road favorite at Michigan State.
Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.
Formed blind at 60.0%, without sight of the price; published at 54.3%, the market’s 48.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f9) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.
What this call was reading
- Big Ten road favorites of four points or less went 26-15 against the spread, a 63.4% cover rate, in conference play since 2021. [web:64] as of 2026-10-26 · kdus1060.com
- Washington is scheduled to play Michigan State on November 14, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, with kickoff scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET. [web:78][web:80] as of 2026-11-12 · msuspartans.com · within 14 days of this call
- Washington's season record was 5-4 overall and 2-4 in the Big Ten after its November 7 game. [web:80] as of 2026-11-07 · gohuskies.com · within 14 days of this call
- Michigan State's season record was 3-6 overall and 1-5 in the Big Ten after its November 7 game. [web:78] as of 2026-11-07 · msuspartans.com · within 14 days of this call
- Washington's starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. was listed as questionable, safety Alex McLaughlin and defensive tackle Elinneus Davis were also listed as questionable, and running back Trey Cooley was listed as doubtful. [web:30] as of 2026-11-11 · si.com · within 14 days of this call
- Michigan State's availability report listed defensive tackle Ben Roberts, cornerbacks Tre Bell and Charles Brantley, and backup quarterback Cam Fancher as questionable; running back Jaziun Patterson as doubtful; and 10 players, including safety Devin Vaught and receiver Rodney Bullard, as out. [web:19] as of 2026-11-11 · mlive.com · within 14 days of this call
- Washington's latest result was a 28-25 loss to Penn State, a three-point margin. [web:80] as of 2026-11-07 · gohuskies.com · within 14 days of this call
- Michigan State's latest result was a 15-6 win over Michigan, a nine-point margin. [web:78] as of 2026-11-07 · msuspartans.com · within 14 days of this call
Polymarket prices this at 44.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $19,522 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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This call is line t-0307 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.